Created another thread, but thought I'd share this here as well.

After looking at a list like this, I decided to do some checking myself. Wikipedia had a much longer list of bellwether counties in every state. Pretty much all of these have been on the losing side at most 3 times in half a century (and some have an accuracy streak much longer than that). What are the odds of the results below leading to the outcomes we're expected to believe in these states? I can't even guess at how high they'd be.

Michigan (Trump wins all 35! Usually huge margins.)

Bay County – Trump 57.8%

Calhoun County – Trump 54.8%

Eaton County – Trump 49.5%

Manistee County – Trump 56.8%

Isabella County – Trump 50.4%

Macomb County – Trump 53.3%

Monroe County – Trump 60.5%

Shiawassee County – Trump 59%

Van Buren County – Trump 55.3%

Delta County – Trump 62.4%

St. Clair County – Trump 64.3%

Benzie County – Trump 53.8%

Houghton County – Trump 56.1%

Lenawee County – Trump 59.1%

Alcona County – Trump 68.6%

Alpena County – Trump 63%

Cass County – Trump 63.7%

Cheboygan County – Trump 64.2%

Clare County – Trump 66.7%

Crawford County – Trump 64.6%

Dickinson County Trump 64%

Gladwin County – Trump 67.7%

Gratiot County – Trump 63.3%

Iosco County – Trump 63.5%

Kalkaska County – Trump 70%

Luce County – Trump 70.3%

Mackinac County – Trump 61.5%

Mason County – Trump 59.2%

Mecosta County – Trump 63%

Menominee County – Trump 64.4%

Ogemaw County – Trump 69.3%

Ontonagon County – Trump 62%

Presque Isle County – Trump 64%

Roscommon County – Trump 64.4%

Schoolcraft County – Trump 65.1%

Wisconsin (Trump wins 28 of 30! Usually by huge margins and the 2 that went Biden were razor thin)

Sauk County – Biden 50%

Price County – Trump 62.4%

Chippewa County – Trump 59.4%

Marquette County – Trump 63.2%

Lincoln County – Trump 60.7%

Winnebago County – Trump 51%

Racine County – Trump 51.3%

Forest County – Trump 65.1%

Door County – Biden 50%

Columbia County – Trump 50%

Grant County – Trump 55.2%

Crawford County – Trump 53.1%

Richland County – Trump 54.2%

Lafayette County – Trump 56.4%

Brown County – Trump 52.8%

Jackson County – Trump 56.9%

Outagamie County – Trump 54.1%

Trempealeau County – Trump 57.5%

Jefferson County – Trump 56.9%

Wood County – Trump 59%

Oneida County – Trump 56.7%

Barron County – Trump 62.4%

Manitowoc County – Trump 60.8%

Washburn County – Trump 61.2%

Monroe County – Trump 61.1%

Marathon County – Trump 58.3%

Kewaunee County – Trump 65.7%

Clark County – Trump 67.3%

Rusk County – Trump 66.7%

Oconto County – Trump 69.9%

Minnesota (Trump wins of 14 of 18! Usually by huge margins, while the 4 that went for Biden were all razor thin)

Stevens County – Trump 60.1%

Chippewa County – Trump 64.4%

Watonwan County – Trump 59.8%

Houston County – Trump 55.5%

Traverse County – Trump 62.9%

Kittson County – Trump 58.8%

Nicollet County – Biden 50.5%

Clay County – Biden 50.9%

Blue Earth County – Biden 51%

Winona County – Biden 49.2%

Pope County – Trump 63%

Grant County – Trump 62.2%

Yellow Medicine County – Trump 67.8%

Lincoln County – Trump 68.1%

Pennington County – Trump 62.4%

Le Sueur County – Trump 64.2%

Murray County – Trump 68.9%

Benton County – Trump 64.7%

Pennsylvania (Trump wins all 5!)

Luzerne County – Trump 56.8%

Carbon County – Trump 65.4%

Elk County – Trump 71.8%

Warren County – Trump 68.9%

Clinton County – Trump 67.5%

Virginia (Trump wins 7 of 8! Half by a huge margin and half by a good clip, but the one Biden gets is razor thin)

Buckingham County – Trump 56.1%

Nelson County – Trump 51.4%

Essex County – Trump 49.9%

Montgomery County – Biden 51.8%

King and Queen County – Trump 59.7%

Alleghany County – Trump 71.7%

Tazewell County – Trump 83.4%

Giles County – Trump 75.1%

North Carolina (Trump wins of 9 of 18! This is what a legitimately close election looks like.)

Granville County – Trump 52.8%

Martin County – Trump 52.1%

Pitt County – Biden 54.1%

Forsyth County – Biden 56.3%

Wilson County – Biden 51%

Wake County – Biden 62.5%

Buncombe County – Biden 59.9%

Guilford County – Biden 61%

Cumberland County – Biden 57.5%

Mecklenburg County – Biden 66.9%

Watauga County – Biden 53.3%

Jackson County – Trump 53.1%

Hyde County – Trump 57.1%

Franklin County – Trump 56.1%

Perquimans County – Trump 65.6%

Montgomery County – Trump 65.5%

Madison County – Trump 61.2%

Camden County – Trump 72.8%

Georgia (Trump wins 15 of 20!)

Newton County – Biden 54.9%

Douglas County – Biden 62%

Early County – Trump 52.4%

Baldwin County – Biden 50.1%

Sumter County – Biden 52%

Burke County – Trump 50.5%

Rockdale County – Biden 69.9%

Chattahoochee County – Trump 55.6%

Wheeler County – Trump 69.3%

Butts County – Trump 71.4%

Heard County – Trump 83.8%

Polk County – Trump 78.1%

Long County – Trump 62.4%

Hart County – Trump 74.4%

Chattooga County – Trump 80.2%

Elbert County – Trump 67.9%

Treutlen County – Trump 68.3%

Decatur County – Trump 58.1%

Screven County – Trump 59.1%

Wilkes County – Trump 56.1%

**Arizona **(Trump wins all 3, but there are so few counties in the state that I don't know how much this can tell us)

Gila County – Trump 66.4%

Pinal County – Trump 56.8%

Navajo County – Trump 53.4%

Nevada

None