If the votes were only coming from, say, Philadelphia, that might be a reasonable argument. But the vote was split almost exactly 50/50 between Philadelphia and hard red counties that have never gone Democrat. It might be believable that Democrats got nearly 100% of their party's voters to swing for Biden. Unlikely, but at least plausible. But the idea that they got nearly 100% of independents is laughable.
They did not get nearly 100% of the independents, my math in a reply to the same comment shows 88/12 split which is lower than what the OP got but higher than the comment. I will 100% agree that over an entire state, this is nearly next to impossible for that big of a gap and that alone would warrant taking a look at the ballots.
Yeah, I would agree that comparing available percentages is not a valid way to compare it. Building off of what you have said, there are 29,996 mail in votes for Jo so really that leaves only 35k independent votes for Trump so it's actually a 88/12 split of independents which looks really fishy to me and I am not sure any candidate in history over an entire state ever had that much of a one side independent split .
Thank you for pointing this out! You exposed that PA's website has party registration statistics for some mail votes but not all. I will keep you updated if this changes...
New results are in. There is currently a 74,174 vote difference between total mail votes by candidate and total mail votes by party. Assuming that the final mail votes will favor Biden by 82% (62,000 of the 74,174) and assuming that he won every Democrat mail vote and assuming that Jo Jorgensen / write-ins won the independents they needed to via mail, Trump wins 0 Independents and loses Republicans to Jorgensen. Assuming the final mail votes favor Trump 84% and assuming Joe Biden won every D mail vote and assuming Jorgensen / write-ins won the independents they needed via mail, Trump wins 20,000 Independents out of 300,000 which is 7%.
I have a math and stats background but this is making me confused. Is it also valid to look at it this way?
Sorry to be doomer, but isn't this the normal ratio for mail in votes?
If the votes were only coming from, say, Philadelphia, that might be a reasonable argument. But the vote was split almost exactly 50/50 between Philadelphia and hard red counties that have never gone Democrat. It might be believable that Democrats got nearly 100% of their party's voters to swing for Biden. Unlikely, but at least plausible. But the idea that they got nearly 100% of independents is laughable.
They did not get nearly 100% of the independents, my math in a reply to the same comment shows 88/12 split which is lower than what the OP got but higher than the comment. I will 100% agree that over an entire state, this is nearly next to impossible for that big of a gap and that alone would warrant taking a look at the ballots.
this data implies though that almost no democrats (<1000) voted by mail for Trump. Is that statistically possible??
Yeah, I would agree that comparing available percentages is not a valid way to compare it. Building off of what you have said, there are 29,996 mail in votes for Jo so really that leaves only 35k independent votes for Trump so it's actually a 88/12 split of independents which looks really fishy to me and I am not sure any candidate in history over an entire state ever had that much of a one side independent split .
Thank you for pointing this out! You exposed that PA's website has party registration statistics for some mail votes but not all. I will keep you updated if this changes...
New results are in. There is currently a 74,174 vote difference between total mail votes by candidate and total mail votes by party. Assuming that the final mail votes will favor Biden by 82% (62,000 of the 74,174) and assuming that he won every Democrat mail vote and assuming that Jo Jorgensen / write-ins won the independents they needed to via mail, Trump wins 0 Independents and loses Republicans to Jorgensen. Assuming the final mail votes favor Trump 84% and assuming Joe Biden won every D mail vote and assuming Jorgensen / write-ins won the independents they needed via mail, Trump wins 20,000 Independents out of 300,000 which is 7%.