The key takeaway from the graphic is that only Biden's votes violate Benford's law, as Trump's votes follow Benford's law to a tee. Benford's law will be used to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that there was voter fraud in certain areas (Milwaukee, Detriot, Philadelphia, and Allegheny). Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will be red and Trump will get the corresponding 46 electoral votes.
ANY data set should (as long as it doesn't have some restricted set of values, like people's heights (all start with 4, 5, or 6 basically) or phone numbers. I was amazed as I learned about it that things like the heights of the tallest buildings -- no matter what units you use! -- conform to Benford's Law. Even more powerful, when you check the second digit as well (it follows a different prediction distribution), you can combine them to make a very powerful case mathematically that foul play is afoot.
Makes sense to me. About a third of the time I’m either driving 10-19 mph or over 100.
Jokes aside. You’re right though. Even if it’s true (and it seems very plausible honestly), you’re going to have a hard time convincing an American jury that. I think it’s definitely proof enough for an investigation for sure. And I’m not diminishing the fact that massive fraud 100% took place. We just can’t put some numbers on a graph and say “AHA! Caught you fuckers!” It’s going to take a lot more legwork than that but this should definitely be enough to convince the doomer pedes that this isn’t over yet!
10-19 mph or 100 is another good example of restrictive factors placed on the data, as in, speed limits dictating the flow of traffic.
Have a little faith in the jurors, Pede. When you bring an expert witness in to explain how they use benford's law in their own practice, people will listen.
Benford's law was the gateway to prosecution for Enron, as well Just saying the name basically carries the entire connotation, that it's very important that we at least take a closer look to see what's really going on.
Apparently it HAS been used successfully in court before. I want to check now.
Edit: Ooh, this is going to be good -- "Since about 1989, Benford’s Law has been used to detect fraud in financial statements. And more recently in demographic data and research reports. It is admissible evidence in federal, state, and local courts of law. It has been used to test regression coefficients in scientific papers, and to detect anomalies in health care data. It has been used on Iranian election data to demonstrate probable fraud. Also, several years after Greece joined the European Union, Benford’s Law was used to analyze the financial data Greece used in their application."
Can I use it to unfuck all the numbers I fudged on my taxes? Like can I plug all my fraud in and be like “hmm I need more numbers that start with 1 and less that start with 4”?
Massive thanks to the pede who did this. it is the best evidence of fraud we have. What is interesting, would be to calculate how many votes you have to substract from biden to be within norm and what that would mean for election results
Thanks for doing this OP! Just out of curiosity, what would be the explanation for Trumps high value in column 2 of the top right graph, does it still conform to Benfords law?
The key takeaway from the graphic is that only Biden's votes violate Benford's law, as Trump's votes follow Benford's law to a tee. Benford's law will be used to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that there was voter fraud in certain areas (Milwaukee, Detriot, Philadelphia, and Allegheny). Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will be red and Trump will get the corresponding 46 electoral votes.
it's so amazing to think even Jorgenson's vote numbers follow the Benford's law.
ANY data set should (as long as it doesn't have some restricted set of values, like people's heights (all start with 4, 5, or 6 basically) or phone numbers. I was amazed as I learned about it that things like the heights of the tallest buildings -- no matter what units you use! -- conform to Benford's Law. Even more powerful, when you check the second digit as well (it follows a different prediction distribution), you can combine them to make a very powerful case mathematically that foul play is afoot.
this is the first time i've heard of Bedford's law and no matter how many youtube videos I've watch it still seems to spooky to me.
Makes sense to me. About a third of the time I’m either driving 10-19 mph or over 100.
Jokes aside. You’re right though. Even if it’s true (and it seems very plausible honestly), you’re going to have a hard time convincing an American jury that. I think it’s definitely proof enough for an investigation for sure. And I’m not diminishing the fact that massive fraud 100% took place. We just can’t put some numbers on a graph and say “AHA! Caught you fuckers!” It’s going to take a lot more legwork than that but this should definitely be enough to convince the doomer pedes that this isn’t over yet!
10-19 mph or 100 is another good example of restrictive factors placed on the data, as in, speed limits dictating the flow of traffic.
Have a little faith in the jurors, Pede. When you bring an expert witness in to explain how they use benford's law in their own practice, people will listen.
Benford's law was the gateway to prosecution for Enron, as well Just saying the name basically carries the entire connotation, that it's very important that we at least take a closer look to see what's really going on.
Can you do the numbers for a very obvious blue state? Do Biden's votes follow the law there?
benford's law only failed when applied to votes for Biden...smoking gun
It also fails to accurately predict Trumps winning data set. Seeing as how he’s #1 100% of the time, his 1 on the Bedfort scale would be 100%
Based
Apparently it HAS been used successfully in court before. I want to check now.
Edit: Ooh, this is going to be good -- "Since about 1989, Benford’s Law has been used to detect fraud in financial statements. And more recently in demographic data and research reports. It is admissible evidence in federal, state, and local courts of law. It has been used to test regression coefficients in scientific papers, and to detect anomalies in health care data. It has been used on Iranian election data to demonstrate probable fraud. Also, several years after Greece joined the European Union, Benford’s Law was used to analyze the financial data Greece used in their application."
Can I use it to unfuck all the numbers I fudged on my taxes? Like can I plug all my fraud in and be like “hmm I need more numbers that start with 1 and less that start with 4”?
Asking for a fren....
Demcoms don't gaf about laws. It's why this is happening.
lol - sure, but natural laws don't care whether you acknowledge them, they apply anyway.
In the top chart of Philadelphia, I think you have the labels reversed.
Massive thanks to the pede who did this. it is the best evidence of fraud we have. What is interesting, would be to calculate how many votes you have to substract from biden to be within norm and what that would mean for election results
omg yes! I never thought about subtracting the votes to make it conform to the law
AMEN very well done pede! <3 MAGA2020
Thanks for doing this OP! Just out of curiosity, what would be the explanation for Trumps high value in column 2 of the top right graph, does it still conform to Benfords law?
Edit: just saw your below comment!