This is a bad bet. Why? Because you can get MUCH better odds elsewhere. If Trump wins, I stand to make about $4000 and only put in about $350 so far. Even if we flip only 1 state, and I lose all other bets, I'll still come out even or slightly ahead.
Exactly. The scale of the fraud is massive enough that you only need to overturn a small percentage of the fraudulent votes to have the majority again.
I'm one to not gamble, on principle, and because I'm a mathematician. But this is an instance where I have money I can afford to lose, and the odds are too good, even if I cut my expectations in half.
I'm spreading out my money quite a lot. I have money on PA, AZ, GA, MI, WI, and NV. The payout for each is anywhere between 10x to 20x, which even if it's a 25% chance for each state to flip (I think it's much higher), is still a mathematical wise bet.
All of this said, I'm NOT encouraging anyone to gamble, or suggesting anyone should trust my biases.
If Trump wins by flipping just a couple states, they may stop checking the other states (I would hope they fully audit all states to expose the dems). You'd come out ahead if you got one state to flip, but you could be unlucky if you placed a bet on 1-2 states and not the others.
For sure. I spread out my bids across ALL of the contested states. If Trump wins any 2 contested states, and the election, I'm up by at least $3500 right now. If he wins ALL of them, I might be up 6k to 7k. That's pretty crazy considering that at this exact time, I'm only in $450.
From a financial standpoint, if there's any depressing news for a day or two, it would actually help me buy more shares cheap, and potentially double my winnings with minimal investment.
I'm focused on the long-term and not any short-term stuff. I know the democrats will throw a curve-ball or two. For example, we might get another major dump of illegal-votes, which makes it look like we're losing or lose a state-level case, which shifts the betting markets. However, my bets are based on what I think would happen at a supreme court level, with an understand there is risk many of the decisions may not go our way. Local courts, I'm guessing might be 70% against, while SCOTUS from a pessimistic perspective is 50% favorable. I'm using pessimistic numbers here simply to try to overcome my own bias.
I actually picked up a bunch of shares in AZ cheaply due to some bad news that came out about 24 hours ago, that since has been shown to be relatively meaningless. By ninja-ing smart buys, my portfolio value at this exact second is apparently over $1000 despite having only spent about $450.
This is a bad bet. Why? Because you can get MUCH better odds elsewhere. If Trump wins, I stand to make about $4000 and only put in about $350 so far. Even if we flip only 1 state, and I lose all other bets, I'll still come out even or slightly ahead.
And people are still betting against that happening, even though PA with a 40k margin has already found 450,000 invalid votes.
Exactly. The scale of the fraud is massive enough that you only need to overturn a small percentage of the fraudulent votes to have the majority again.
I'm one to not gamble, on principle, and because I'm a mathematician. But this is an instance where I have money I can afford to lose, and the odds are too good, even if I cut my expectations in half.
I'm spreading out my money quite a lot. I have money on PA, AZ, GA, MI, WI, and NV. The payout for each is anywhere between 10x to 20x, which even if it's a 25% chance for each state to flip (I think it's much higher), is still a mathematical wise bet.
All of this said, I'm NOT encouraging anyone to gamble, or suggesting anyone should trust my biases.
If Trump wins by flipping just a couple states, they may stop checking the other states (I would hope they fully audit all states to expose the dems). You'd come out ahead if you got one state to flip, but you could be unlucky if you placed a bet on 1-2 states and not the others.
For sure. I spread out my bids across ALL of the contested states. If Trump wins any 2 contested states, and the election, I'm up by at least $3500 right now. If he wins ALL of them, I might be up 6k to 7k. That's pretty crazy considering that at this exact time, I'm only in $450.
From a financial standpoint, if there's any depressing news for a day or two, it would actually help me buy more shares cheap, and potentially double my winnings with minimal investment.
I'm focused on the long-term and not any short-term stuff. I know the democrats will throw a curve-ball or two. For example, we might get another major dump of illegal-votes, which makes it look like we're losing or lose a state-level case, which shifts the betting markets. However, my bets are based on what I think would happen at a supreme court level, with an understand there is risk many of the decisions may not go our way. Local courts, I'm guessing might be 70% against, while SCOTUS from a pessimistic perspective is 50% favorable. I'm using pessimistic numbers here simply to try to overcome my own bias.
I actually picked up a bunch of shares in AZ cheaply due to some bad news that came out about 24 hours ago, that since has been shown to be relatively meaningless. By ninja-ing smart buys, my portfolio value at this exact second is apparently over $1000 despite having only spent about $450.