Think of a bucket with salt water as the "authentic" mail-in ballots all ready to go to be counted. It's all shaken up, allowed to sit and the concentration is equal. Treat salt as Biden ballots.
To start the count, I puncture a small little hole in the bottom of the bucket and measure each drop. It's always the same concentration no matter if it's at the start, middle, or end.
Now, when the poll counters notice that the salt concentration isn't high enough, they plug the hole and add more salt.
If you add more salt and thoroughly shake the bucket up and unplug the hole, the salt concentration is permanently increased. Think of this as someone getting a crap ton of Biden ballots, and in order to mask addition of the salt, they add it to the bins of remaining mail-in ballots to make it look even.
If you add more salt, but don't shake the bucket up and then unplug the hole, the salt concentration gradually increases over time as the salt dissolves slowly. Think of this as workers adding more and more Biden ballots to the remaining ballots over time.
TL;DR - there is a certain concentration of Biden ballots in the "real" mail-in ballots. This concentration changing over time suggests that additional Biden ballots are being introduced, thereby increasing the concentration of Biden ballots over time in one way shape or form.
Thank you so much. I am intrigued now. I,m having another look with what you said in mind, but not after thanking you again for your excellent explanation.
I'm no statistician, but it looks like a third to half the data is highly anomalous. Bombshell material, i presume?
Edit to add: i have read the entire thing now. Holy cow. This is amazingly obvious. Super interesting actually.
Yup -
Think of a bucket with salt water as the "authentic" mail-in ballots all ready to go to be counted. It's all shaken up, allowed to sit and the concentration is equal. Treat salt as Biden ballots.
To start the count, I puncture a small little hole in the bottom of the bucket and measure each drop. It's always the same concentration no matter if it's at the start, middle, or end.
Now, when the poll counters notice that the salt concentration isn't high enough, they plug the hole and add more salt.
If you add more salt and thoroughly shake the bucket up and unplug the hole, the salt concentration is permanently increased. Think of this as someone getting a crap ton of Biden ballots, and in order to mask addition of the salt, they add it to the bins of remaining mail-in ballots to make it look even.
If you add more salt, but don't shake the bucket up and then unplug the hole, the salt concentration gradually increases over time as the salt dissolves slowly. Think of this as workers adding more and more Biden ballots to the remaining ballots over time.
TL;DR - there is a certain concentration of Biden ballots in the "real" mail-in ballots. This concentration changing over time suggests that additional Biden ballots are being introduced, thereby increasing the concentration of Biden ballots over time in one way shape or form.
Thank you so much. I am intrigued now. I,m having another look with what you said in mind, but not after thanking you again for your excellent explanation.
There’s a TL;DR at the bottom of it, but pretty much, yeah.
Yikes...