This guy did a thread on why the NYT "Edison" scraped dataset is no good. If you are interested, please read it. We may be barking up the wrong tree here.
It did it in VA too, which suggests that there could be some artifact it picks up, or indeed that VA was the subject of fraud, though it hasn't been challenged yet.
If the data is faulty, why does it produce consistent graphs in every state except fraud states???
It doesn't, I don't think he bothered to check. Here's a quick Tennessee I did, and it looks like Wyoming would produce a similar shape, and that's just from the start of the database.
on why the NYT "Edison" scraped dataset is no good
His main objection: "How the fuck do you have 77 votes 22 minutes before before you can have 11 votes?"
Easy. This is the first couple entries for PA. Election workers screwed something up in their election tabulation / edison upload and reset the system, or the first batch recorded they undid because of some procedure problem. We already know that PA is incompetent at counting/rigging votes.
idk anything about this dataset, but that objection is bunk.
I'd love it if someone could take a look and give me a second opinion, but I think this whole thing is flawed. I tried to plot the data myself, but the problem is - he's getting his numbers for each batch of votes based on the percentage of the overall vote. Which is fine at first, but once the overall vote gets larger, the percentage barely changes, since it's rounded to only 1 decimal place.
So all the mail-in ballot batches that he assumed were the same because they were "mixed together like cards" is really just because of the way the data is formatted.
But like I've said elsewhere in this thread I'm running on empty so I could be off the mark on my analysis too.
This guy did a thread on why the NYT "Edison" scraped dataset is no good. If you are interested, please read it. We may be barking up the wrong tree here.
Yes! Glad I'm not going crazy. The tl;dr from his tweets:
This dataset doesn't even have the number of votes actually cast. It's
total votes cast
percentage dem
percentage rep
lots of room for error here. Once we get into the millions, we are going to miss >thousands of votes and attribute them incorrectly due to rounding. So we have >to be super careful about what conclusions we can reach using this data.
You can find my twitter if you want, @CosmoDiGirolamo. I helped share this original time series analysis. If it's incorrect, I want to help share the correction. I don't want pedes wasting time in a flawed dataset.
I'm really curious if someone could analyze California. Orange County had a very low turnout for Trump even though it's usually very Republican. If the Dems had to cheat even in California it would be absolutely insane.
Here you go: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/alex/nyt-2020-election-scraper/master/results.json
edit: here's an archived pdf of the csv haha https://f.maga.host/9ZrSJyZ.pdf
This guy did a thread on why the NYT "Edison" scraped dataset is no good. If you are interested, please read it. We may be barking up the wrong tree here.
https://twitter.com/hyonschu/status/1325627295181103104
If you are interested in checking out what is a bigger / better scraped dataset, check this one out from Decision Desk HQ.
https://gofile.io/d/eUNz6r
It did it in VA too, which suggests that there could be some artifact it picks up, or indeed that VA was the subject of fraud, though it hasn't been challenged yet.
It doesn't, I don't think he bothered to check. Here's a quick Tennessee I did, and it looks like Wyoming would produce a similar shape, and that's just from the start of the database.
Btw, if you mean “guy who posted the link,” then...
Seriously. Post history indicates only copy pasta objection to the data source.
Nothing suspicious there. <MassiveEyeRoll>
“Hello, fellow millipedes! Trust my true and honest advising!”
His main objection: "How the fuck do you have 77 votes 22 minutes before before you can have 11 votes?"
Easy. This is the first couple entries for PA. Election workers screwed something up in their election tabulation / edison upload and reset the system, or the first batch recorded they undid because of some procedure problem. We already know that PA is incompetent at counting/rigging votes.
idk anything about this dataset, but that objection is bunk.
Well there goes my free time this week
I'd love it if someone could take a look and give me a second opinion, but I think this whole thing is flawed. I tried to plot the data myself, but the problem is - he's getting his numbers for each batch of votes based on the percentage of the overall vote. Which is fine at first, but once the overall vote gets larger, the percentage barely changes, since it's rounded to only 1 decimal place.
So all the mail-in ballot batches that he assumed were the same because they were "mixed together like cards" is really just because of the way the data is formatted.
But like I've said elsewhere in this thread I'm running on empty so I could be off the mark on my analysis too.
This guy did a thread on why the NYT "Edison" scraped dataset is no good. If you are interested, please read it. We may be barking up the wrong tree here.
https://twitter.com/hyonschu/status/1325627295181103104
If you are interested in checking out what is a bigger / better scraped dataset, check this one out from Decision Desk HQ.
https://gofile.io/d/eUNz6r
Yes! Glad I'm not going crazy. The tl;dr from his tweets:
If you are interested in checking out what is a bigger / better scraped dataset, check this one out from Decision Desk HQ.
https://gofile.io/d/eUNz6r
Why are u spamming this bot
You can find my twitter if you want, @CosmoDiGirolamo. I helped share this original time series analysis. If it's incorrect, I want to help share the correction. I don't want pedes wasting time in a flawed dataset.
I'm really curious if someone could analyze California. Orange County had a very low turnout for Trump even though it's usually very Republican. If the Dems had to cheat even in California it would be absolutely insane.
Last minute anomalous Bluewave Fuckery in OC in 2018, if memory serves.
https://archive.vn/xkfQB
Twitter thread archived