Douglas County, Nebraska (part of Nebraska 2nd District which Biden one electoral vote for)
Sarpy County, Nebraska (a portion of this county is part of Nebraska 2nd)
If you can get the entire 2nd District of Nebraska data that would be good.
Yeah I did Douglas county and it's weird for both of them. Biden's are definitely more skewed but neither of them follows it perfectly. Problem is in large parts of the county the votes are always with 60/40 or 55/45 margins for either candidate. So a lot of 4, 5, 6, 7s end up getting grouped together on both sides. Also each area where the votes come in are always like 1000-1500 range almost exactly so it messes up the chart for both candidates.
It may be that certain kinds of cheating fail Benfords while others don't. Traditional gradual ballot stuffing and ballot discarding probably doesn't impact it? But dominion or scorecard or vote flipping is probably more likely to? Also, massive 100% ballot stuffing for 1 candidate might also trigger. The issue with the Dominion "glitches" is that one candidate gets votes added and the other gets votes subtracted.
So adding votes (to Biden) should cause the data to fail the Benford law.
But what is removing votes from Trump expected to do for Benford's law analysis?
Douglas County, Nebraska (part of Nebraska 2nd District which Biden one electoral vote for) Sarpy County, Nebraska (a portion of this county is part of Nebraska 2nd)
If you can get the entire 2nd District of Nebraska data that would be good.
Workin it atm, they've got the data for both
any news on this one for NE2 or NE? or do you have a link to the new post?
Yeah I did Douglas county and it's weird for both of them. Biden's are definitely more skewed but neither of them follows it perfectly. Problem is in large parts of the county the votes are always with 60/40 or 55/45 margins for either candidate. So a lot of 4, 5, 6, 7s end up getting grouped together on both sides. Also each area where the votes come in are always like 1000-1500 range almost exactly so it messes up the chart for both candidates.
Here's the data set if you want to give it a go. https://electionresults.nebraska.gov/resultsPREC.aspx?type=PRS&rid=11232&cty=01&osn=90&pty=0&map=PREC
It may be that certain kinds of cheating fail Benfords while others don't. Traditional gradual ballot stuffing and ballot discarding probably doesn't impact it? But dominion or scorecard or vote flipping is probably more likely to? Also, massive 100% ballot stuffing for 1 candidate might also trigger. The issue with the Dominion "glitches" is that one candidate gets votes added and the other gets votes subtracted.
So adding votes (to Biden) should cause the data to fail the Benford law.
But what is removing votes from Trump expected to do for Benford's law analysis?
Will work on it and keep it updated, Maricopas data is awful atm :( they don't have any structured data set so far that's precint by precint