Yeah I did Douglas county and it's weird for both of them. Biden's are definitely more skewed but neither of them follows it perfectly. Problem is in large parts of the county the votes are always with 60/40 or 55/45 margins for either candidate. So a lot of 4, 5, 6, 7s end up getting grouped together on both sides. Also each area where the votes come in are always like 1000-1500 range almost exactly so it messes up the chart for both candidates.
It may be that certain kinds of cheating fail Benfords while others don't. Traditional gradual ballot stuffing and ballot discarding probably doesn't impact it? But dominion or scorecard or vote flipping is probably more likely to? Also, massive 100% ballot stuffing for 1 candidate might also trigger. The issue with the Dominion "glitches" is that one candidate gets votes added and the other gets votes subtracted.
So adding votes (to Biden) should cause the data to fail the Benford law.
But what is removing votes from Trump expected to do for Benford's law analysis?
Yeah I did Douglas county and it's weird for both of them. Biden's are definitely more skewed but neither of them follows it perfectly. Problem is in large parts of the county the votes are always with 60/40 or 55/45 margins for either candidate. So a lot of 4, 5, 6, 7s end up getting grouped together on both sides. Also each area where the votes come in are always like 1000-1500 range almost exactly so it messes up the chart for both candidates.
Here's the data set if you want to give it a go. https://electionresults.nebraska.gov/resultsPREC.aspx?type=PRS&rid=11232&cty=01&osn=90&pty=0&map=PREC
It may be that certain kinds of cheating fail Benfords while others don't. Traditional gradual ballot stuffing and ballot discarding probably doesn't impact it? But dominion or scorecard or vote flipping is probably more likely to? Also, massive 100% ballot stuffing for 1 candidate might also trigger. The issue with the Dominion "glitches" is that one candidate gets votes added and the other gets votes subtracted.
So adding votes (to Biden) should cause the data to fail the Benford law.
But what is removing votes from Trump expected to do for Benford's law analysis?