You're correct that as straight Republican ballot percentages approach 100% then the surplus Trump vote percentage must approach 0%, for the sum of both cannot be greater than 100%.
But that doesn't explain the near uniformity of the slope of the problematic counties, nor the fact that the algorithm looks to be "if republican_straight_ticket > 20%, then force slope to -1/2"
The near uniformity of the slope could be explained by a constant President-Only/Mixed vote for Trump. If that number is assumed to be a constant 50% and orthogonal to the Straight Ballot share, then you'll see a constant 10% decrease for every 10% increase of Straight Ballot R share above 50%... linearly. Also, at below 20%, likely because of small N of straight R ballots.
I see the points being made by the arguments above, but similar to the video they all require that assumptions be made. The truth is that it is damn hard to prove anything either way at this point. If it is fraud, the people doing it aren't stupid and wouldn't make it easy to catch. This is a good resource to get people to question what is going on, maybe even freak out some people who may or may not be "in" on it. It is not a smoking gun. As always, we should keep our minds open to all possibilities in order to come to the best understanding of what is actually going on.
You're correct that as straight Republican ballot percentages approach 100% then the surplus Trump vote percentage must approach 0%, for the sum of both cannot be greater than 100%.
But that doesn't explain the near uniformity of the slope of the problematic counties, nor the fact that the algorithm looks to be "if republican_straight_ticket > 20%, then force slope to -1/2"
The near uniformity of the slope could be explained by a constant President-Only/Mixed vote for Trump. If that number is assumed to be a constant 50% and orthogonal to the Straight Ballot share, then you'll see a constant 10% decrease for every 10% increase of Straight Ballot R share above 50%... linearly. Also, at below 20%, likely because of small N of straight R ballots.
I see the points being made by the arguments above, but similar to the video they all require that assumptions be made. The truth is that it is damn hard to prove anything either way at this point. If it is fraud, the people doing it aren't stupid and wouldn't make it easy to catch. This is a good resource to get people to question what is going on, maybe even freak out some people who may or may not be "in" on it. It is not a smoking gun. As always, we should keep our minds open to all possibilities in order to come to the best understanding of what is actually going on.