Also engineer, also reached same conclusion. Will copy paste reply from earlier I made.
I'm going to go full doomer here. Doesn't this just mean in precincts where Republicans used the straight ticket option more, there were less available people to vote Trump? Inversely, in places where, let's say 20% of people voted straight R, the remaining 80% of people could have voted Trump for prez then down ballot for dems? Wouldn't that make sense for largely democrat areas where Trump has won people over? In order words, in largely dem areas where no one would use RSP, Trump literally has no where to go but up. If 0% use RPS, the number of Trump-RSP has to be positive or zero. I think that's why these charts start with X<20% and Y being positive.
A downtrend being observed is not surprising at all. If 100% of Trump voters voted RSP, then Trump-RSP would have nowhere to go but down. In fact if 100% of Trump voters voted RSP, Trump then gets NO individual votes which I think would be a -100% score.
Also I caught that trick at 38:50 The X axis only goes to 35% so the effect I'm describing above would not take noticeable effect yet. Compare that chart to other charts when >35% is cropped out.
Doesn't this just mean in precincts where Republicans used the straight ticket option more, there were less available people to vote Trump?
I thought so at first too, but realize he said the independent votes and straight party votes were separate data sets. Each data set should have proportions that add up to 100%.
The X axis expresses "how Republican is the precinct" as inferred by the percentage of precinct voters that chose the Straight Republican option.
The Y axis shows if the Individual Candidate voters were "more or less favorable to Trump". They do this by plotting the difference between these voters' Trump % to the the straight Republican voters' split.
For example, in a precinct which had 80% Straight Republican (vs 20% Straight Democrat) but only 20% Individual Trump (vs 80% Individual Biden), you'd put that precinct as a -60% on the Y axis.
They do this by plotting the difference between these voters' Trump % to the the straight Republican voters' split.
This is the problem right here. He is creating a function with y dependent on x, and then acting surprised that there is a relationship between y and x.
The function for Y is chosen to make the visualization clear. You could also express it as the split between Trump and Biden for Individual Choice voters, and you’d see a trend after 20ish% of X where Y skews towards Biden linearly.
Also engineer, also reached same conclusion. Will copy paste reply from earlier I made.
I'm going to go full doomer here. Doesn't this just mean in precincts where Republicans used the straight ticket option more, there were less available people to vote Trump? Inversely, in places where, let's say 20% of people voted straight R, the remaining 80% of people could have voted Trump for prez then down ballot for dems? Wouldn't that make sense for largely democrat areas where Trump has won people over? In order words, in largely dem areas where no one would use RSP, Trump literally has no where to go but up. If 0% use RPS, the number of Trump-RSP has to be positive or zero. I think that's why these charts start with X<20% and Y being positive.
A downtrend being observed is not surprising at all. If 100% of Trump voters voted RSP, then Trump-RSP would have nowhere to go but down. In fact if 100% of Trump voters voted RSP, Trump then gets NO individual votes which I think would be a -100% score.
Also I caught that trick at 38:50 The X axis only goes to 35% so the effect I'm describing above would not take noticeable effect yet. Compare that chart to other charts when >35% is cropped out.
I thought so at first too, but realize he said the independent votes and straight party votes were separate data sets. Each data set should have proportions that add up to 100%.
The X axis expresses "how Republican is the precinct" as inferred by the percentage of precinct voters that chose the Straight Republican option.
The Y axis shows if the Individual Candidate voters were "more or less favorable to Trump". They do this by plotting the difference between these voters' Trump % to the the straight Republican voters' split.
For example, in a precinct which had 80% Straight Republican (vs 20% Straight Democrat) but only 20% Individual Trump (vs 80% Individual Biden), you'd put that precinct as a -60% on the Y axis.
This is the problem right here. He is creating a function with y dependent on x, and then acting surprised that there is a relationship between y and x.
The function for Y is chosen to make the visualization clear. You could also express it as the split between Trump and Biden for Individual Choice voters, and you’d see a trend after 20ish% of X where Y skews towards Biden linearly.