You're right and they even address this exact issue in their presentation. The poster above you is wrong.
Certainly not all Republicans will vote for Trump (although he does have historically high approval ratings). However, we would not see a perfectly linear decrease that grows as the number of Republicans in a district increases. Besides, the downward slope is too perfect which allows Dr. Shiva to precisely predict the number of votes transferred to Biden.
I thought like you, then I started to do the math and realized one of my friends was right, it does naturally go down when set up that way in the situation that a percentage of R voters consistently don't vote Trump. Look at my other comment to see numbers worked out.
Obviously all those voters will not be in the straight ticket, so they will go to the y-axis, and it will gradually slope down. It isn't 1-1 straight ticket R to non-straight ticket R, because anyone who doesn't want Trump (or Biden for D) will always be distributed into the non-straight ticket section that is graphed in the y-axis.
The problem is how quickly it sloped down, clearly higher than 5%.
I think that slope is about how the same data would look sorting by Biden voters with no siphoning, but the principle holds: if a stable portion of dems walked away, with this graph set up, the more dems in a district, % D biden - % D straight ticket
would trend linearly down.
You're right and they even address this exact issue in their presentation. The poster above you is wrong.
Certainly not all Republicans will vote for Trump (although he does have historically high approval ratings). However, we would not see a perfectly linear decrease that grows as the number of Republicans in a district increases. Besides, the downward slope is too perfect which allows Dr. Shiva to precisely predict the number of votes transferred to Biden.
Look at the video 44m in for a discussion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ztu5Y5obWPk&ab_channel=Dr.ShivaAyyadurai
I thought like you, then I started to do the math and realized one of my friends was right, it does naturally go down when set up that way in the situation that a percentage of R voters consistently don't vote Trump. Look at my other comment to see numbers worked out.
Obviously all those voters will not be in the straight ticket, so they will go to the y-axis, and it will gradually slope down. It isn't 1-1 straight ticket R to non-straight ticket R, because anyone who doesn't want Trump (or Biden for D) will always be distributed into the non-straight ticket section that is graphed in the y-axis.
The problem is how quickly it sloped down, clearly higher than 5%. I think that slope is about how the same data would look sorting by Biden voters with no siphoning, but the principle holds: if a stable portion of dems walked away, with this graph set up, the more dems in a district, % D biden - % D straight ticket would trend linearly down.