Can someone answer some questions for me regarding Dr. Shiva's analysis? So in Michigan, you can vote in one of two ways, making a straight party selection or voting individually by race.
And their precincts report not only how many votes Trump (and Biden got), but what form those votes took, i.e., how many votes Trump received via voters making a "straight party Republican selection" vs. voters making an individual selection for Trump in the presidential race? Dr. Shiva's graphs looked at the total Trump vote percentage minus the straight Republican party percentage and graphed that against the Republican percentage of straight-party votes in that precinct? So if there were 200 votes in a precinct, 150 of which were via straight party voting, and Republicans (and thus Trump) got 100 of those votes and Democrats got 50 -- and then an additional 50 votes which were via individual voting and of which Trump and Biden each received 25, that would show up on the graph as a point at 66.7% on the x-axis (i.e., Trump's percentage of straight party voting, i.e., 100*150/200) and negative 4.2% on the y-axis (i.e., 62.5% - 66.7%)? Do I have that right?
The percentage of straight-party ticket votes for Trump is being used as a proxy for the "Republican-ness" of a particular precinct. Presumably you would get a similar result if you used different proxies for that quantity, e.g., the percentage of votes that were cast by voters who are registered as Republicans (or the percentage of total registered voters who are registered as Republicans)?
How well-established is the baseline as far as what this kind of graph "should" look like? They showed that Wayne county didn't have the pattern? But what about counties in other states? Or the same or different counties in past presidential elections? That seems like a pretty key piece of information in terms of proving that there isn't an innocent / natural explanation for the phenomenon, no?
I need to see some baselines, and I need to see the entire state graphed, not just red counties and 1 blue county.
My take:
Let's call anyone that doesn't vote straight ticket an independent. Let's say independents consistently break 50-50.
In a blue county, the straight ticket vote could be 80-20 for Biden. Let's say 20 percent of voters are independents and they vote 50/50. This would plot as 20, +30 for Trump.
In a red county that votes 80-20 for Trump straight ticket with the same 20% voting 50/50, this would plot as 80, -30.
In a split county, you get 50/50 straight ticket, and 50/50 independents, which plots 50-0.
That's a straight line at a consistent downward trajectory.
Shiva's "normal" distribution also such me as odd. Why should independents break the same as the rest of the precinct, or why should they be consistently +5% or -5%. In other words, why should independents break 80-20 in a blue county and 20-80 in a red county? I don't reach that conclusion at all. A blue county isn't blue because the independents lean Dem, it's blue because the country has more Dems and vice-a-versa.
In a blue county, the straight ticket vote could be 80-20 for Biden. Let's say 20 percent of voters are independents and they vote 50/50. This would plot as 20, +30 for Trump.
Hmm, I don't think so. Wouldn't that plot as 20, -6? If Trump got 80% of 80% of the vote and 50% of the remaining 20%, his total vote percentage would be 74%. That minus the 80% of the straight-party vote he got would be -6, no?
Why should independents break the same as the rest of the precinct, or why should they be consistently +5% or -5%. In other words, why should independents break 80-20 in a blue county and 20-80 in a red county? I don't reach that conclusion at all.
I see your point. My gut response is that there are probably fewer true "independents" than you think. If most of the people in a precinct who opt to use the straight-party voting method are "fully Republican" enough to vote straight-party Republican, it seems to me that it's probably also true that most of the people in that same precinct who don't use that method are at least sufficiently "Republican" to vote at least mostly Republican, i.e., in this case, vote for Trump. (And I'd also imagine that at least some of the people who use the individual voting method may actually end up voting straight-party.) So I would expect there to be a reasonably good correlation between the two metrics.
Y (I think) is % independent Trump votes - % Republican straight ticket.
So my example is 20% straight Republican and 50% of independents, which would be (20, 30). A county with 80% straight Republican and 50% independents would be (80, -30).
Can someone answer some questions for me regarding Dr. Shiva's analysis? So in Michigan, you can vote in one of two ways, making a straight party selection or voting individually by race.
And their precincts report not only how many votes Trump (and Biden got), but what form those votes took, i.e., how many votes Trump received via voters making a "straight party Republican selection" vs. voters making an individual selection for Trump in the presidential race? Dr. Shiva's graphs looked at the total Trump vote percentage minus the straight Republican party percentage and graphed that against the Republican percentage of straight-party votes in that precinct? So if there were 200 votes in a precinct, 150 of which were via straight party voting, and Republicans (and thus Trump) got 100 of those votes and Democrats got 50 -- and then an additional 50 votes which were via individual voting and of which Trump and Biden each received 25, that would show up on the graph as a point at 66.7% on the x-axis (i.e., Trump's percentage of straight party voting, i.e., 100*150/200) and negative 4.2% on the y-axis (i.e., 62.5% - 66.7%)? Do I have that right?
The percentage of straight-party ticket votes for Trump is being used as a proxy for the "Republican-ness" of a particular precinct. Presumably you would get a similar result if you used different proxies for that quantity, e.g., the percentage of votes that were cast by voters who are registered as Republicans (or the percentage of total registered voters who are registered as Republicans)?
How well-established is the baseline as far as what this kind of graph "should" look like? They showed that Wayne county didn't have the pattern? But what about counties in other states? Or the same or different counties in past presidential elections? That seems like a pretty key piece of information in terms of proving that there isn't an innocent / natural explanation for the phenomenon, no?
I'm with you on that...
I need to see some baselines, and I need to see the entire state graphed, not just red counties and 1 blue county.
My take: Let's call anyone that doesn't vote straight ticket an independent. Let's say independents consistently break 50-50.
In a blue county, the straight ticket vote could be 80-20 for Biden. Let's say 20 percent of voters are independents and they vote 50/50. This would plot as 20, +30 for Trump.
In a red county that votes 80-20 for Trump straight ticket with the same 20% voting 50/50, this would plot as 80, -30.
In a split county, you get 50/50 straight ticket, and 50/50 independents, which plots 50-0.
That's a straight line at a consistent downward trajectory.
Shiva's "normal" distribution also such me as odd. Why should independents break the same as the rest of the precinct, or why should they be consistently +5% or -5%. In other words, why should independents break 80-20 in a blue county and 20-80 in a red county? I don't reach that conclusion at all. A blue county isn't blue because the independents lean Dem, it's blue because the country has more Dems and vice-a-versa.
Hmm, I don't think so. Wouldn't that plot as 20, -6? If Trump got 80% of 80% of the vote and 50% of the remaining 20%, his total vote percentage would be 74%. That minus the 80% of the straight-party vote he got would be -6, no?
I see your point. My gut response is that there are probably fewer true "independents" than you think. If most of the people in a precinct who opt to use the straight-party voting method are "fully Republican" enough to vote straight-party Republican, it seems to me that it's probably also true that most of the people in that same precinct who don't use that method are at least sufficiently "Republican" to vote at least mostly Republican, i.e., in this case, vote for Trump. (And I'd also imagine that at least some of the people who use the individual voting method may actually end up voting straight-party.) So I would expect there to be a reasonably good correlation between the two metrics.
X is % Republican straight ticket
Y (I think) is % independent Trump votes - % Republican straight ticket.
So my example is 20% straight Republican and 50% of independents, which would be (20, 30). A county with 80% straight Republican and 50% independents would be (80, -30).