Can someone answer some questions for me regarding Dr. Shiva's analysis? So in Michigan, you can vote in one of two ways, making a straight party selection or voting individually by race.
And their precincts report not only how many votes Trump (and Biden got), but what form those votes took, i.e., how many votes Trump received via voters making a "straight party Republican selection" vs. voters making an individual selection for Trump in the presidential race? Dr. Shiva's graphs looked at the total Trump vote percentage minus the straight Republican party percentage and graphed that against the Republican percentage of straight-party votes in that precinct? So if there were 200 votes in a precinct, 150 of which were via straight party voting, and Republicans (and thus Trump) got 100 of those votes and Democrats got 50 -- and then an additional 50 votes which were via individual voting and of which Trump and Biden each received 25, that would show up on the graph as a point at 66.7% on the x-axis (i.e., Trump's percentage of straight party voting, i.e., 100*150/200) and negative 4.2% on the y-axis (i.e., 62.5% - 66.7%)? Do I have that right?
The percentage of straight-party ticket votes for Trump is being used as a proxy for the "Republican-ness" of a particular precinct. Presumably you would get a similar result if you used different proxies for that quantity, e.g., the percentage of votes that were cast by voters who are registered as Republicans (or the percentage of total registered voters who are registered as Republicans)?
How well-established is the baseline as far as what this kind of graph "should" look like? They showed that Wayne county didn't have the pattern? But what about counties in other states? Or the same or different counties in past presidential elections? That seems like a pretty key piece of information in terms of proving that there isn't an innocent / natural explanation for the phenomenon, no?
Can someone answer some questions for me regarding Dr. Shiva's analysis? So in Michigan, you can vote in one of two ways, making a straight party selection or voting individually by race.
And their precincts report not only how many votes Trump (and Biden got), but what form those votes took, i.e., how many votes Trump received via voters making a "straight party Republican selection" vs. voters making an individual selection for Trump in the presidential race? Dr. Shiva's graphs looked at the total Trump vote percentage minus the straight Republican party percentage and graphed that against the Republican percentage of straight-party votes in that precinct? So if there were 200 votes in a precinct, 150 of which were via straight party voting, and Republicans (and thus Trump) got 100 of those votes and Democrats got 50 -- and then an additional 50 votes which were via individual voting and of which Trump and Biden each received 25, that would show up on the graph as a point at 66.7% on the x-axis (i.e., Trump's percentage of straight party voting, i.e., 100*150/200) and negative 4.2% on the y-axis (i.e., 62.5% - 66.7%)? Do I have that right?
The percentage of straight-party ticket votes for Trump is being used as a proxy for the "Republican-ness" of a particular precinct. Presumably you would get a similar result if you used different proxies for that quantity, e.g., the percentage of votes that were cast by voters who are registered as Republicans (or the percentage of total registered voters who are registered as Republicans)?
How well-established is the baseline as far as what this kind of graph "should" look like? They showed that Wayne county didn't have the pattern? But what about counties in other states? Or the same or different counties in past presidential elections? That seems like a pretty key piece of information in terms of proving that there isn't an innocent / natural explanation for the phenomenon, no?