Been around since 2015, read but never joined the Donald.
However, after reading the chan and going over it, this guy basically played a math trick on us, and I had to sign up and post. It's a slope and should be. if 10% of the the total independents and and dems, vote in a dem concentrated precinct of 800 dems 200 reps, trump will end up with 100 more votes than republicans. Trump gets 300 or 30%, republicans have 200 or 20% or +10% vs. republicans in favor of trump Trump.
If the Republicans lead a precinct with 800 to 200 dems. Trump got 10% of the dems, Trump ends up with 220 votes or 82%. The republicans get 80%, or a +2% net vs republicans in favor of Trump.
There is our downward slope, and adjust for not all republicans for Trump, we end up with their crazy numbers and slope.
Kills me to realize it and post it, but I think he's full of shit now after going over it.
FUCKIN LOL ya'll coming out the woodwork tonight ain't ya?
Prove me wrong, I just don't want to see people pushing false shit and making us look stupid.
How about you prove yourself right? making bold claims w/ no backup.
It's not that bold really.
I know this thread is dead but I'll try one last time before I sleep.
Let's say 100 votes a district.
Let's say Trump pulls 10% of democrats to vote for him constantly.
Republicans pull 20, trump gets those votes and 10 percent of dems left (80) , he has 28 votes. That's 40% more than republicans.
In an 80% republican district, trump pulls 10% of the dems votes left(20) , trump has 82 votes. That equals to 1.25% more than republicans.
The left of their graph will be high left and trend down towards more concentrated republicans.
While you make your approach with some good intentions, I am watching other events and I'm sold on human reactions to current events such as Esper "resigning" (he was probably told to pack his shit with honor or suffer some legal fucking nightmare) and the resulting shitfest of resignations from NPC's loyal to him over the numbers nerdery of some twitter dude claiming to be the "Inventor of Email"(pompous douche). I've been a SysAdmin for 25 years, email has always been the priority in my career, I know what the protocol stacks of email are and I know who he is, he was part of a team of engineers who wrote the Standardized Protocols of SMTP. But I digress.
There are tons of twitter warriors trying to get in front of their perceived trains to glory and while he may be pumping bullshit hes still basing it off the obvious facts that all the red flags of fraud have completely flicked on and flicked on so hard their incandescent filaments popped and busted their housings.
Add to that the fact that its being murmured that John Brennan may have in fact been taken into custody while his twitter stopped shitposting Nov 7 and would have been fullstop dicking w/ Trump since then with everything going on. It leads me to believe that we are in fact in the middle of some truly crazy shit that none of use will begin to even understand until the smoke settles.
TLDR; you are stuck in a forest staring at a tree.
I have no doubt Trump will win. I'm following here from when I wake up to go to bed, plus luckily a lot of down time during work. I try to vet what I tell people. I watched the vid on the way home and was blown away.
I went to /pol and saw an anon's comment, went with myself and he is just wrong, and one of those 3 should have known that.
It's time to keep the energy up and not rely on this lazy and wrong work!
The graph is a plot of straight party voting republicans vs the difference of those and single republican votes in percent, not w/e the heck you are talking about.
The math doesn’t make any sense to me either. It’s been bothering me for an hour since watching the video. If a ward has no Republican Party line votes, it can only have a positive trump to gop party line vote ratio. As a ward has more gop party line votes it has more opportunity for the opposite. The percent of party line vote does not represent the percent that district is republican or Democrat. I haven’t mapped out the math myself but I can’t help think that the downward slope is expected based on linear increase in possible Y distribution as X increases. I would love for someone to prove me wrong so I can save myself some time and energy.
It's basically (Trump votes-Rep votes)/(Rep votes)
Smaller amount of rep votes makes it easier to get a higher percentage, and a higher amount makes it harder to get that percentage.
It’s percent of (suspected) independent trump votes minus percent (suspected) GOP trump votes plotted against percent of GOP trump votes. To be honest I’m not sure why this relationship is even valid to track. But what I do know is that the closer to 0 on the X axis you get the less the distribution on the Y axis can be. There can be no points under 0% on the Y axis as X is at 0% so at 0 on X all points on Y will be in the upper left - as you plot across X there is a linear increase in the possibility of Y dropping under 0 on the Y axis. So to me this says that the points are gonna naturally hover a consistent amount above the baseline. The baseline in this case being a slope from 0(y),0(x) to -100(y),100(x). So to me, unless I am thinking about this completely wrong, the distribution seems natural. Let’s say all the points linger in a band 10% above the baseline, the baseline being a sloped line, will create a sloped distribution.
The internet was invented by the military, not some pajeet.
I got him confused with Gor
I think you meant email. Otherwise nice try, good larpin'
You got me on that, it was email, not trying to larp tho. The math doesn't and won't add up.
Say twat?