I think when we were all introduced to Benford's law a few days ago the focus was Detroit. Perhaps the distribution of detroits 600K residents across its 500 precincts is less uniform? I believe when the initial posts came up they also compared the 2020 plots to the 2016 plots.
I downloaded the DecisionDeskHQ country level results by state and sorted and ran some tests against the Benford's law distribution and for county result numbers in pretty much every state both trump and biden deviated significantly. What I noticed at the time was the states with the most counties (Texas) deviated most greatly, which is counter to what I expected as I though the more data points the more likely to follow the rule, but no... the data needs to span several orders of magnitude as Matt here describes.
tools like Benford's law aren't proof they just help steer you where to look, still would like to see this kind of analysis applied to other counties in MI and WI and see what pops out
I think when we were all introduced to Benford's law a few days ago the focus was Detroit. Perhaps the distribution of detroits 600K residents across its 500 precincts is less uniform? I believe when the initial posts came up they also compared the 2020 plots to the 2016 plots.
Because they follow Biden's law
i seen that. i wonder if extending out to a state level makes a difference.
I downloaded the DecisionDeskHQ country level results by state and sorted and ran some tests against the Benford's law distribution and for county result numbers in pretty much every state both trump and biden deviated significantly. What I noticed at the time was the states with the most counties (Texas) deviated most greatly, which is counter to what I expected as I though the more data points the more likely to follow the rule, but no... the data needs to span several orders of magnitude as Matt here describes.
tools like Benford's law aren't proof they just help steer you where to look, still would like to see this kind of analysis applied to other counties in MI and WI and see what pops out