For those of you who like the Benford's Law stuff. Apparently, Benford's Law is actually not a great indicator of fraud in elections though second-digit Benford is.
I wonder if there are any statisticians here who have run the number for the 8-10 problem states. I would email Walter Mebane himself, but it's unlikely he would want to do this himself for fear of being Arkancided or whatever.
Here's a Mebane lecture where he goes through unimodality and a few other of his tests.Would be great to see the if the distributions of these problem states are "lumpy" or not.
I think it's likely they are lumpy AF - like Russia.
https://www.iie.org/Research-and-Insights/Publications/DFG-UM-Publication
For those of you who like the Benford's Law stuff. Apparently, Benford's Law is actually not a great indicator of fraud in elections though second-digit Benford is.
I wonder if there are any statisticians here who have run the number for the 8-10 problem states. I would email Walter Mebane himself, but it's unlikely he would want to do this himself for fear of being Arkancided or whatever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkx_eO0PvXU&t=3845s
Here's a Mebane lecture where he goes through unimodality and a few other of his tests.Would be great to see the if the distributions of these problem states are "lumpy" or not.
I think it's likely they are lumpy AF - like Russia.