He is saying that the y-value should stay constant and not go down linearly. But the y-value is this: y=c-x where x is linear from 0-100% and c is the percentage of votes Trump got on ballots that were mixed (meaning not straight Republican or straight democrat vote ballots). In order for the value of Y to stay flat "c" must increase at the same rate as "x" so they cancel each other out. But his assumption is that as a precinct becomes more Republican (moving left to right on his graph) mixed ballot voters should go for Trump in an increasing number (the same rate as the x-axis). But mixed ballot voters are independents, Democrats and Republicans who encompass every voter that did not vote straight ticket (Dem or Rep). Why should we assume those voters would increase their Trump votes from 0-100% as a district becomes more Republican? We should not. The percentage of Independents voting Trump should not increase linearly as a precinct gets more Republican - that doesn't make sense. In fact the graph shows that mixed ballot Trump voters go from ~0-25% as you move from left to right on the x-axis until you get to 20%. Then it rises to ~35% and essentially levels off there moving right. At this point the "c" becomes a constant while "x" increases giving a linearly sloping downward "Y" result.
Their assumption that the percentage of Trump Only voters should track with percentage of GOP straight ticket voters is fine. You do realize some GOP voted Trump only right?
I think I'm seeing Filetsmignon's argument. I'm not sure you can assume the remaining non-R population would vote for Trump at the same rate as the R population. If the non-R population voted for Trump at a consistent rate, which is a more logical assumption, the graph as constructed would always slope down as you move right along the x-axis.
Do your own analysis of his math on that slide.
You can downvote me, but unless you've done the math on that slide and compared it to his graph and quack results your downvote is worthless.
Since you've done the math, tell us what the error is?
He is saying that the y-value should stay constant and not go down linearly. But the y-value is this: y=c-x where x is linear from 0-100% and c is the percentage of votes Trump got on ballots that were mixed (meaning not straight Republican or straight democrat vote ballots). In order for the value of Y to stay flat "c" must increase at the same rate as "x" so they cancel each other out. But his assumption is that as a precinct becomes more Republican (moving left to right on his graph) mixed ballot voters should go for Trump in an increasing number (the same rate as the x-axis). But mixed ballot voters are independents, Democrats and Republicans who encompass every voter that did not vote straight ticket (Dem or Rep). Why should we assume those voters would increase their Trump votes from 0-100% as a district becomes more Republican? We should not. The percentage of Independents voting Trump should not increase linearly as a precinct gets more Republican - that doesn't make sense. In fact the graph shows that mixed ballot Trump voters go from ~0-25% as you move from left to right on the x-axis until you get to 20%. Then it rises to ~35% and essentially levels off there moving right. At this point the "c" becomes a constant while "x" increases giving a linearly sloping downward "Y" result.
Their assumption that the percentage of Trump Only voters should track with percentage of GOP straight ticket voters is fine. You do realize some GOP voted Trump only right?
I think I'm seeing Filetsmignon's argument. I'm not sure you can assume the remaining non-R population would vote for Trump at the same rate as the R population. If the non-R population voted for Trump at a consistent rate, which is a more logical assumption, the graph as constructed would always slope down as you move right along the x-axis.
I'm trying to figure out what part of this you are contesting?
See my other comments in this thead.
A lot of us cannot remember long division much less do our own math on this.