Their assumption that the percentage of Trump Only voters should track with percentage of GOP straight ticket voters is fine. You do realize some GOP voted Trump only right?
I think I'm seeing Filetsmignon's argument. I'm not sure you can assume the remaining non-R population would vote for Trump at the same rate as the R population. If the non-R population voted for Trump at a consistent rate, which is a more logical assumption, the graph as constructed would always slope down as you move right along the x-axis.
You are saying that %TO is people who came in and voted for Trump only and they did not vote for anything else on the ballot - just a single vote for Trump and left everything else blank. That's not correct. What Shiva is saying is that y=(%TO)-x where %TO (to use your variable) is the percentage of voters who voted for Trump but ALSO voted for other candidates - which makes them a mix of Reps, Dems, Indy, Green, etc. That's an important distinction because that %TO variable represents Dems, Reps, Indy, etc. voters who voted for Trump. And I think we can likely agree that they are probably heavily Independents because they didn't vote straight party Rep or Dem - but we don't know the mix. Here is Shiva explaining what the two types of voters are - tell me if you get a different sense from his explanation and whether you still think %TO represents people who only voted for Trump and left the rest of the ballot blank or whether you think they are people who voted for Trump but also voted for other party candidates down ballot. https://youtu.be/Ztu5Y5obWPk?t=920
I agree that my original understanding of his definition was incorrect (if anything i was too narrow), but the concept they/I are putting forward still makes the most sense.
Regardless of the percentage of straight GOP voters, there is no good reason why the percentage of voters that like Trump regardless of down ballot choices should be anything other than either the same as or slighty more or less than the straight ticket voters. These are disgruntled/ex- GOPers, first time voters, anti abortion Dems, Bernie Bros, bandwagon riders, etc.
I understand the variables, but the logic is squishy. There are two populations we are considering, the straight R population and everyone else (the non-straight R population). As you move right along the x-axis, the non-straight R population gets smaller and smaller. Why should we assume that the non-straight R population would vote for Trump at an increasing rate the more republican a district? All I'm saying is that a better assumption is that the non-straight R population would vote for Trump at a consistent rate. If my assumption is correct, the graph has to slope down.
The second population of interest is Trump voters not voting GOP straight ticket. I would argue most of those people are disgruntled GOP, old people who like Trump voting for the first time, and pissed off Dems. It is more plausible that the % change of that population tracks with % change of GOP straight ticket voters.
Their assumption that the percentage of Trump Only voters should track with percentage of GOP straight ticket voters is fine. You do realize some GOP voted Trump only right?
I think I'm seeing Filetsmignon's argument. I'm not sure you can assume the remaining non-R population would vote for Trump at the same rate as the R population. If the non-R population voted for Trump at a consistent rate, which is a more logical assumption, the graph as constructed would always slope down as you move right along the x-axis.
Not sure you understand the variables.
Y axis is %TO - %GOPstr8
X axis is %GOPstr8
%TO = Trump Only votes / all Only votes
%GOPstr8 = GOP straight ticket votes / all straight ticket votes
The denominators are different. It's more plausible TO and GOPstr8 votes would track than not.
You are saying that %TO is people who came in and voted for Trump only and they did not vote for anything else on the ballot - just a single vote for Trump and left everything else blank. That's not correct. What Shiva is saying is that y=(%TO)-x where %TO (to use your variable) is the percentage of voters who voted for Trump but ALSO voted for other candidates - which makes them a mix of Reps, Dems, Indy, Green, etc. That's an important distinction because that %TO variable represents Dems, Reps, Indy, etc. voters who voted for Trump. And I think we can likely agree that they are probably heavily Independents because they didn't vote straight party Rep or Dem - but we don't know the mix. Here is Shiva explaining what the two types of voters are - tell me if you get a different sense from his explanation and whether you still think %TO represents people who only voted for Trump and left the rest of the ballot blank or whether you think they are people who voted for Trump but also voted for other party candidates down ballot. https://youtu.be/Ztu5Y5obWPk?t=920
UPDATE: here is good explanation between the straight party vote and individual vote in Michigan: https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/24/straight-ticket-option-michigan-ballots-2020-november/3726907001/
I agree that my original understanding of his definition was incorrect (if anything i was too narrow), but the concept they/I are putting forward still makes the most sense.
Regardless of the percentage of straight GOP voters, there is no good reason why the percentage of voters that like Trump regardless of down ballot choices should be anything other than either the same as or slighty more or less than the straight ticket voters. These are disgruntled/ex- GOPers, first time voters, anti abortion Dems, Bernie Bros, bandwagon riders, etc.
I understand the variables, but the logic is squishy. There are two populations we are considering, the straight R population and everyone else (the non-straight R population). As you move right along the x-axis, the non-straight R population gets smaller and smaller. Why should we assume that the non-straight R population would vote for Trump at an increasing rate the more republican a district? All I'm saying is that a better assumption is that the non-straight R population would vote for Trump at a consistent rate. If my assumption is correct, the graph has to slope down.
The second population of interest is Trump voters not voting GOP straight ticket. I would argue most of those people are disgruntled GOP, old people who like Trump voting for the first time, and pissed off Dems. It is more plausible that the % change of that population tracks with % change of GOP straight ticket voters.