The second population of interest is Trump voters not voting GOP straight ticket. I would argue most of those people are disgruntled GOP, old people who like Trump voting for the first time, and pissed off Dems. It is more plausible that the % change of that population tracks with % change of GOP straight ticket voters.
I went back and re-watched his explanation of the populations. The non-straight R population that voted for Trump is a subset of the total non-straight R population. There is no indication that it is Trump Only voters from that population. The non-straight R population includes a mix of everything (R, D, I) but probably mostly independents.
The two groups are (straight ticket voters) and (individual pick voters). Why would the ratio of Trump voters differ between these two groups within the same precinct?
The second population of interest is Trump voters not voting GOP straight ticket. I would argue most of those people are disgruntled GOP, old people who like Trump voting for the first time, and pissed off Dems. It is more plausible that the % change of that population tracks with % change of GOP straight ticket voters.
I went back and re-watched his explanation of the populations. The non-straight R population that voted for Trump is a subset of the total non-straight R population. There is no indication that it is Trump Only voters from that population. The non-straight R population includes a mix of everything (R, D, I) but probably mostly independents.
That's my conclusion as well.
The two groups are (straight ticket voters) and (individual pick voters). Why would the ratio of Trump voters differ between these two groups within the same precinct?
Concept still holds