Please let me know if I’m missing something because his presentation seems to be the most likely evidence of fraud, but I seem to be in the minority of that consensus.
He separated the straight down ballot votes from the total votes to calculate the “baseline” for the Xaxis and then the overall total vote for the Yaxis. This wouldn’t necessarily create a negative slope like those tweets suggest.
Pretend 1000 total votes, but 500 of those people just simply selected the option to vote all Republican or vote all democrat. Of those 500 it was a breakdown of 300R and 200D so 60% Republican which he would use on the X axis. The other 500 votes that individually selected candidates should follow a similar trend, so assume 300R and 200D again for 60% Republican. This would be (60%-60%) equaling zero and right on the expected baseline. What his data is claiming is that in a precinct where half the 1000 voters chose to select all one party at an example ratio of 400R votes and 100D votes (80% R) there was somehow a shift in the individual voters in that same precinct that the other half of the thousand voted 200R and 300D (40% R) so the Y axis would be (80%-40%) for a -40% Y axis
Unfortunately, his analysis seems to be flawed:
https://twitter.com/Clustify/status/1326312800310923265
Please let me know if I’m missing something because his presentation seems to be the most likely evidence of fraud, but I seem to be in the minority of that consensus.
He separated the straight down ballot votes from the total votes to calculate the “baseline” for the Xaxis and then the overall total vote for the Yaxis. This wouldn’t necessarily create a negative slope like those tweets suggest.
Pretend 1000 total votes, but 500 of those people just simply selected the option to vote all Republican or vote all democrat. Of those 500 it was a breakdown of 300R and 200D so 60% Republican which he would use on the X axis. The other 500 votes that individually selected candidates should follow a similar trend, so assume 300R and 200D again for 60% Republican. This would be (60%-60%) equaling zero and right on the expected baseline. What his data is claiming is that in a precinct where half the 1000 voters chose to select all one party at an example ratio of 400R votes and 100D votes (80% R) there was somehow a shift in the individual voters in that same precinct that the other half of the thousand voted 200R and 300D (40% R) so the Y axis would be (80%-40%) for a -40% Y axis