I am a Veteran who has the day off today because of Veterans day, so i took some time to do some analysis of the Minnesota results.
THEY STOLE MINNESOTA!!
they use something i'm calling the "2% strategy". Heres how it works:
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do not let the 3rd party votes get more than 2.1% of the total percentage of votes in minnesota. I think they gave these votes to Biden over the course of the evening.
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when that was failing, they did a "total adjustment" to all 3 candidates to keep Biden in the lead.
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 WATCH THIS VIDEO 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
video here explaining it: https://streamable.com/vd158c
raw data from the new york times: https://static01.nyt.com/elections-assets/2020/data/api/2020-11-03/race-page/minnesota/president.json
pastebin of the python code i used to calculate the numbers based off that data: https://pastebin.com/0DEyqBkW
csv file with all the data so you can use it in excel and look at it yourself: https://pastebin.com/YEHWZaZD (download and change from .txt file to a .csv file, then open it in excel)
SOMEBODY TELL THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN!!! THEY WON MINNESOTA!!!
EDIT: Good call out on the significant figures issue. Great work! However, that doesn't explain why the 3rd party count was adjusted down 23 times while the biden/trump counts were only adjusted down a handful of times each.
Also, note that the Trump/Biden percentages start at 29%-69% at the beginning of the evening, but by the end of the count have adjusted down to 45%-52%. AND YET THE 3RD PARTY PERCENTAGE NEVER DEVIATES FROM 2.1% THE ENTIRE EVENING!
EDIT2: I don't have twitter or social media or anything, so please help get this in front of the Trump campaign or anyone else who can help #stopthesteal !!
EDIT3: FOR ALL YOU PEOPLE COMPLAINING ABOUT ROUNDING ERRORS Why does the Trump and Biden percentages move throughout, but the 3rd party % stays at 2.1%??? https://i.maga.host/2Ym3Wv2.png Biden goes from a 70% lead to a 52% lead, Trump goes from a 30% deficit a 45% deficit. 3RD PARTY VOTES NEVER CHANGES FROM 2.1%
Hey man, I watched your video. I think there's a problem in your analysis.
The underlying data is rounded to 0.1%, so the 3rd party vote is hovering between 2.0% and 2.1%. When it switches, it looks like a huge swing – but in reality the 3rd party vote is probably hovering between something like 2.049% (rounds down to 2%) and 2.051% (rounds up to 2.1%). So I think you need swings larger than 0.1% to prove that vote stealing is occurring.
It does look like at 4 in the morning, the 3rd party percentage shot up to 2.9% and then came back down to 2%. I would focus on that area. I think the other shifts are just noise that have to do with percentage rounding.
Edit: u/wethedownvoted makes a similar point below if you scroll through the comments 👇
I addressed this issue in the edit. Let me know what you think! Thanks for looking at it!
I'm sorry to be critical but I don't know if you're actually on to something, due to ROUNDING
Here....
First of all, we don't know the 3rd party vote numbers. We don't even know the numbers for Trump or Biden. We only know three things: % Trump, % Biden, and total votes.
You are assuming that the numbers are what you get when it's calculated "%Trump * Total votes". Here's the problem with that assumption: numbers can have a range when they're rounded.
Look at the timestamp 2020-11-04T02:42:28Z, when the vote total is 656,181. We have Trump at 30.4%. Do you know what number of votes that is? You're assuming it is 199,479. But it could be anywhere from 199,151 to 199,807. Biden has 67.6%. You're assuming that means he has 443,578 votes. But it could be anywhere from 443,251 to 443,906. So within this range, the third party votes could actually be anywhere from 12,468 to 13,779.
And then moving on to the next timestamp, 2020-11-04T02:44:00Z, when there is 656,769, and you assume there now has been some number switching. OK? Again, we're dealing with ranges. Trump's 30.5% could be anywhere from 199,987 to 200,642. Biden's 67.6% could be anywhere from 443,648 to 444,304. And third party? Anywhere from 11,823 to 13,134.
So the only things you know, again, are the vote %'s and the total votes. Let's see if there's a set of numbers that means this could just be rounding, and nothing strange is going on? Sure. Here are three sets of voting totals that we could be starting off from when there is 656,181 votes: Trump 199,807, Biden 443,906, and third-party 12,468. Then in comes 588 votes... now it's Trump 199,993, Biden 444,296, and third-party at 12,480. And there you go, no missing votes.
Check your math and check your assumptions please!
FOR ALL YOU PEOPLE COMPLAINING ABOUT ROUNDING ERRORS Why does the Trump and Biden percentages move throughout, but the 3rd party % stays at 2.1%??? https://i.maga.host/2Ym3Wv2.png Biden goes from a 70% lead to a 52% lead, Trump goes from a 30% deficit a 45% deficit. 3RD PARTY VOTES NEVER CHANGES FROM 2.1%