So things have settled down a bit and there's less variables now than there were on election night. We know that currently AZ, GA, WI, MI, NV and PA are still being contested / have lawsuits pending.
I'm going to discount Nevada right now because it only has 6 electoral votes, and Trump would need something like MI, WI, GA, NV to win outright. I think that's unlikely so here's some other options:
1.) Trump wins AZ (Republican AG says unlikely even if some votes are thrown out), GA, WI. This causes a 269 to 269 tie that Trump would win.
2.) Trump wins PA and two other states (needs at least 17 points). This might be more unlikely than winning either or AZ, GA, WI, but it gives more flexibility.
3.) State electors ignore votes and vote for Trump anyway. Pretty unlikely to happen IMO.
Now, we know the Democrats probably weren't stupid enough to leave evidence of fraud lying all over the place to catch them in the event of a hand recount of all ballots. So I don't think it's a good idea to assume that hand counts will catch mail-in voter fraud, although it could reverse voter fraud caused by election machine hacking, the so-called "glitches" that have been flipping thousands of votes in various counties. How many votes that happened to in total is still an unknown I believe, so I can't say for certain if fixing them could or could not swing the election.
So things have settled down a bit and there's less variables now than there were on election night. We know that currently AZ, GA, WI, MI, NV and PA are still being contested / have lawsuits pending.
I'm going to discount Nevada right now because it only has 6 electoral votes, and Trump would need something like MI, WI, GA, NV to win outright. I think that's unlikely so here's some other options:
1.) Trump wins AZ (Republican AG says unlikely even if some votes are thrown out), GA, WI. This causes a 269 to 269 tie that Trump would win.
2.) Trump wins PA and two other states (needs at least 17 points). This might be more unlikely than winning either or AZ, GA, WI, but it gives more flexibility.
3.) State electors ignore votes and vote for Trump anyway. Pretty unlikely to happen IMO.
Now, we know the Democrats probably weren't stupid enough to leave evidence of fraud lying all over the place to catch them in the event of a hand recount of all ballots. So I don't think it's a good idea to assume that hand counts will catch mail-in voter fraud, although it could reverse voter fraud caused by election machine hacking, the so-called "glitches" that have been flipping thousands of votes in various counties. How many votes that happened to in total is still an unknown I believe, so I can't say for certain if fixing them could or could not swing the election.