I just wanted to put this out there, as I don't think things are as straightforward as some of those alleging Dr. Shiva is wrong are implying.
According to the methodology Dr. Shiva gives, the x-axis represents the percentage of RSP (Republican straight party) votes out of the total of straight party votes. Obviously this ranges between 0 and 100%. So does the percentage of TIC (Trump individual candidate) votes out of the total of individual candidate votes. Note that RSP and TIC are separate and together make up the total number of Trump votes, and we must have 0 <= RSP% + TIC% <= 200%.
The y-axis, we are told, is TIC%-RSP%. So the sum x+y of the coordinates of a data point (x,y) is just TIC%. It cannot exceed 100.
So, for example, if you have RSP at 100%, the y-value can't exceed 0. If RSP is 0%, the y-value can't be less than 0. If RSP is 50%, the y-value has to range between -50% and 50%.
Hence this image that someone arguing against Dr. Shiva made on Twitter, which shows these constraints.
All of this appears true enough. But does this imply anything probabilistic about what real plots will look like?
The key question is, why does Dr. Shiva expect his "normal case"to hold, which is equivalent to the assumption that RSP% and TIC% should be roughly equal, and do the aforegoing facts contradict it? Votes are not just random coin tosses, and RSP and TIC are not causally independent of one another, so Dr. Shiva's assumption doesn't appear unreasonable to me (not to say it's correct), while the argument that as RSP% increases, the y-value decreases, so a plot like the ones he obtained are more likely, that doesn't seem to be sound.
Thoughts?
Doesn’t seem like the less committed voters (those not voting straight party ticket) should be more or less likely to vote for Trump or Biden depending on the presence of more or less committed voters in their precinct. Forget about the graph for a second - the votes show that there are a greater percentage of non-straight ticket votes for Biden in areas with more straight ticket GOP voters. That may be true as a general theory but it shouldn’t correlate highly.
That is less committed voters (non-straight party voters) may underperform or over perform for Trump but shouldn’t correlate to the number of straight part voters.
Maybe I am missing it. Remember he obtained the precinct data for those that voted straight party an those that didn’t and who they voted for.
No, because there are no County where independants would be 80-90 percent for either biden or trump. That is why they are independants or less commited. Their votes would hover 50/50 or be 60-40 etc. No way independants would be 85-15 for any candidate
I am surprised how dr at mit can be so wrong. I mean it is obvious why the pattern is like this. This is explained because of the fact that independent voters are close to 50/50 voting for trump. That means in highly republican counties, you would get 80percent of straight ballots going R. But out of Independent ballots, only 50percent trump. This would show as -30percent as you see in the graphs.
So example of strong republican county:
11.000 voters. 8.000 straight R ticket 2.000 straight D ticket 1.000 individual ticket with 500 trump and 500 biden
This tabulates to 80 percent of straight republican (x axis). And 50 percent of individuals for trump. Meaning y axis is minus 30 percent (80-50).
The trend does not look the same for the democrats though as they move from 50-80% in straight party ballots - much less correlated. Or am I looking at it wrong?
Ok, may I ask how can I confirm that this was what he meant?
But it makes sense... The way I explined. So there should be some things to verify your statement. Maybe specific numbers in certertain County
Lets not invent counties with 0 non straight ballots.
Firstly please explain what does not nake sense with these numbers per my example:
example of strong republican county:
11.000 voters. 8.000 straight R ticket 2.000 straight D ticket 1.000 individual ticket with 500 trump and 500 biden
This tabulates to 80 percent of straight republican (x axis). And 50 percent of individuals for trump. Meaning y axis is minus 30 percent (80-50).