How is this different? Trump is shown in red and still shows a decrease in larger percentage republican districts. Biden in blue is being shown to way over-perform in Republican districts. Also Trump is over-performing in Dem districts until the algorithm kicks in.
You're missing a key point - this chart shows Trump's relative strength with ticket-splitting voters measured against his strength in the precinct overall.
Ticket splitters are:
Moderates
Republicans voting for Biden
Democrats voting for Trump
The chart takes the % of ticket splitters for Trump and plots it against the % Trump strength in the district as measured by straight party voters.
In a heavy Republican district, there will be MORE Republicans who vote for Biden than there will be Democrats for Trump. And vice versa: in a heavy Democrat district, there will be MORE Democrats for Trump than there will be Republicans for Biden.
So, in a case with a heavy R district, Trump should be expected to underperform among moderates and registered party ticket splitters than he would compared to hard core straight party Republicans, right?
Of course.
So Shiva is wrong. The negative slope with Trump doing poorly among ticket splitters in heavy R districts is totally normal. It's expected.
What isn't expected is how his performance in heavy Democrat precincts is MUCH LOWER than the trendline, while Biden's performance is MUCH HIGHER than the trendline.
I was under the assumption that it was straight party. But you are saying it was split party ticket? If that's the case then would it be that they would have to take votes away from one and add them to the other? Otherwise you would end up with a negative percentage which can't happen? So then the graph with all of the clumped voting would be the one that is the problem, not the downward (negative) sloping one? Is that correct? I am just asking, not trying to be an ass.
How is this different? Trump is shown in red and still shows a decrease in larger percentage republican districts. Biden in blue is being shown to way over-perform in Republican districts. Also Trump is over-performing in Dem districts until the algorithm kicks in.
You're missing a key point - this chart shows Trump's relative strength with ticket-splitting voters measured against his strength in the precinct overall.
Ticket splitters are:
The chart takes the % of ticket splitters for Trump and plots it against the % Trump strength in the district as measured by straight party voters.
In a heavy Republican district, there will be MORE Republicans who vote for Biden than there will be Democrats for Trump. And vice versa: in a heavy Democrat district, there will be MORE Democrats for Trump than there will be Republicans for Biden.
So, in a case with a heavy R district, Trump should be expected to underperform among moderates and registered party ticket splitters than he would compared to hard core straight party Republicans, right?
Of course.
So Shiva is wrong. The negative slope with Trump doing poorly among ticket splitters in heavy R districts is totally normal. It's expected.
What isn't expected is how his performance in heavy Democrat precincts is MUCH LOWER than the trendline, while Biden's performance is MUCH HIGHER than the trendline.
I was under the assumption that it was straight party. But you are saying it was split party ticket? If that's the case then would it be that they would have to take votes away from one and add them to the other? Otherwise you would end up with a negative percentage which can't happen? So then the graph with all of the clumped voting would be the one that is the problem, not the downward (negative) sloping one? Is that correct? I am just asking, not trying to be an ass.