You're missing a key point - this chart shows Trump's relative strength with ticket-splitting voters measured against his strength in the precinct overall.
Ticket splitters are:
Moderates
Republicans voting for Biden
Democrats voting for Trump
The chart takes the % of ticket splitters for Trump and plots it against the % Trump strength in the district as measured by straight party voters.
In a heavy Republican district, there will be MORE Republicans who vote for Biden than there will be Democrats for Trump. And vice versa: in a heavy Democrat district, there will be MORE Democrats for Trump than there will be Republicans for Biden.
So, in a case with a heavy R district, Trump should be expected to underperform among moderates and registered party ticket splitters than he would compared to hard core straight party Republicans, right?
Of course.
So Shiva is wrong. The negative slope with Trump doing poorly among ticket splitters in heavy R districts is totally normal. It's expected.
What isn't expected is how his performance in heavy Democrat precincts is MUCH LOWER than the trendline, while Biden's performance is MUCH HIGHER than the trendline.
I was under the assumption that it was straight party. But you are saying it was split party ticket? If that's the case then would it be that they would have to take votes away from one and add them to the other? Otherwise you would end up with a negative percentage which can't happen? So then the graph with all of the clumped voting would be the one that is the problem, not the downward (negative) sloping one? Is that correct? I am just asking, not trying to be an ass.
The RED dots on Dr. Shiva's plot (that's the image above, it's not mine), show the relative strength of Trump among ticket splitters vs. straight party voters.
The farther right the dot, the stronger the precinct was overall for Trump, as measured by the % of straight party voters who cast ballots for Trump.
The higher the dot, the more split ticket votes Trump received, expressed as a percentage of Trump votes MINUS the relative strength of the precinct.
My point is Shiva's analysis has a flaw and he focused on the wrong part of the graph.
What I'm trying to call attention to is how the trend line is bends, the more you get to Democrat precinct, and this should NOT be the case, because of course Trump does better among moderates who split their ticket in a heavy Democrat precinct than he does vs. the precinct as a whole.
The problem is, he's not doing as well as he should be doing...which indicates something is wrong in those precincts.
You're missing a key point - this chart shows Trump's relative strength with ticket-splitting voters measured against his strength in the precinct overall.
Ticket splitters are:
The chart takes the % of ticket splitters for Trump and plots it against the % Trump strength in the district as measured by straight party voters.
In a heavy Republican district, there will be MORE Republicans who vote for Biden than there will be Democrats for Trump. And vice versa: in a heavy Democrat district, there will be MORE Democrats for Trump than there will be Republicans for Biden.
So, in a case with a heavy R district, Trump should be expected to underperform among moderates and registered party ticket splitters than he would compared to hard core straight party Republicans, right?
Of course.
So Shiva is wrong. The negative slope with Trump doing poorly among ticket splitters in heavy R districts is totally normal. It's expected.
What isn't expected is how his performance in heavy Democrat precincts is MUCH LOWER than the trendline, while Biden's performance is MUCH HIGHER than the trendline.
I was under the assumption that it was straight party. But you are saying it was split party ticket? If that's the case then would it be that they would have to take votes away from one and add them to the other? Otherwise you would end up with a negative percentage which can't happen? So then the graph with all of the clumped voting would be the one that is the problem, not the downward (negative) sloping one? Is that correct? I am just asking, not trying to be an ass.
It's cool.
The RED dots on Dr. Shiva's plot (that's the image above, it's not mine), show the relative strength of Trump among ticket splitters vs. straight party voters.
The farther right the dot, the stronger the precinct was overall for Trump, as measured by the % of straight party voters who cast ballots for Trump.
The higher the dot, the more split ticket votes Trump received, expressed as a percentage of Trump votes MINUS the relative strength of the precinct.
My point is Shiva's analysis has a flaw and he focused on the wrong part of the graph.
What I'm trying to call attention to is how the trend line is bends, the more you get to Democrat precinct, and this should NOT be the case, because of course Trump does better among moderates who split their ticket in a heavy Democrat precinct than he does vs. the precinct as a whole.
The problem is, he's not doing as well as he should be doing...which indicates something is wrong in those precincts.
Ok, good deal. Nice work. Honestly whatever helps us win is fine by me.