Your dataset is too small. Benford's is probably better for state-level analysis. Not that you didn't do decent work, but I think you should expect outcomes like this for anything under n=1000. n=100,000 would make for a better analysis. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
I think you're correct, though I won't claim to be an expert on Benford's. With a small sample, I don't know how much we can make of this. I'm doing some analysis right now on changes in precinct. Will post again if I find anything interesting.
I think you have a good understanding of Benford's from your original post; the only issue was the sample size (this coming from someone who is also not an expert on Benford's). If you find something interesting with the other analysis, share to the pedes, and, if you remember, link it here. I'd like to see what you find.
Haven't made any conclusions, but there's crazy voter growth from 2016 to 2020 in Maricopa County. Trump earned tons of votes compared 2016, but Biden's gains are even more in raw numbers. You can see precincts on a map here:
In the (new to 2020) Cheatham Precinct, Biden received 3404 votes to Trump's 1051. There's clearly some redistricting going on that's shuffling things around, but Trump won Maricopa County by about ~45,000 votes in 2016. 747,361 to 702,907.
This year, there were 55,000 more votes for the county and the margin is in reverse with Trump's count under Biden's by almost the exact same ~45,000 number. 995,665 to 1,040,774.
There are a lot of Precinct Flips too (60 from Rep to Dem), like "Bluebird" gaining over 1000 new Democrat votes in 2020 and flipping, 2610 to 2094. Lantana County and Longhorn flipped too, with huge Democrat gains.
I have no idea whether it's legit, but there are some astonishing turn-arounds from 2016.
The image above plotsTrump, Biden, and Jorgensen to Benford's Law.
I don't know how anomalous this is or if 743 is a large enough sample size. To my eye, Jorgensen looks the most strange of all, but perhaps that's because she had so many fewer votes recorded than Trump and Biden?
Your dataset is too small. Benford's is probably better for state-level analysis. Not that you didn't do decent work, but I think you should expect outcomes like this for anything under n=1000. n=100,000 would make for a better analysis. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
I think you're correct, though I won't claim to be an expert on Benford's. With a small sample, I don't know how much we can make of this. I'm doing some analysis right now on changes in precinct. Will post again if I find anything interesting.
I think you have a good understanding of Benford's from your original post; the only issue was the sample size (this coming from someone who is also not an expert on Benford's). If you find something interesting with the other analysis, share to the pedes, and, if you remember, link it here. I'd like to see what you find.
Haven't made any conclusions, but there's crazy voter growth from 2016 to 2020 in Maricopa County. Trump earned tons of votes compared 2016, but Biden's gains are even more in raw numbers. You can see precincts on a map here:
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/reviewer/default.htm?DistrictType=N&DistrictCode=1
In the (new to 2020) Cheatham Precinct, Biden received 3404 votes to Trump's 1051. There's clearly some redistricting going on that's shuffling things around, but Trump won Maricopa County by about ~45,000 votes in 2016. 747,361 to 702,907.
This year, there were 55,000 more votes for the county and the margin is in reverse with Trump's count under Biden's by almost the exact same ~45,000 number. 995,665 to 1,040,774.
There are a lot of Precinct Flips too (60 from Rep to Dem), like "Bluebird" gaining over 1000 new Democrat votes in 2020 and flipping, 2610 to 2094. Lantana County and Longhorn flipped too, with huge Democrat gains.
I have no idea whether it's legit, but there are some astonishing turn-arounds from 2016.
Looks like they transferred votes from Trump to Jo
Looks like they gave jo’s first digit numbers to joe.
u/boomerbutnotOKBoomer/ asked for Arizona Benford's Law in this thread:
https://thedonald.win/p/11Q8c2PMPx/can-i-sue-the-dnc-for-lost-produ/
I haven't been able to find all of Arizona, precinct by precinct, but I did find Maricopa's 743 Precincts here:
https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionresults/
The image above plotsTrump, Biden, and Jorgensen to Benford's Law.
I don't know how anomalous this is or if 743 is a large enough sample size. To my eye, Jorgensen looks the most strange of all, but perhaps that's because she had so many fewer votes recorded than Trump and Biden?
I'll leave the conclusions to you.