Remember those videos of people hauling bags of ballots in CA from mailboxes after Nov 4th, and the person recording was asking, "why are you still collecting ballots after the deadline?" I wondered the same thing. Why did CA votes matter? Then I kept hearing Joe talk about his popular vote win of 5 million... which incidentally is exactly the surplus of Biden votes to Trump in CA.
Edit to add: there's also zero risk of getting caught stuffing ballots for Biden when, given limited time/resources, nobody would demand an audit or recount in California since everyone accepts it's an easy win for Biden.
Lucas County voter turnout lowest in precincts that voted for Biden
Though Lucas County itself stayed blue in Tuesday’s election, some of the most pro-Democratic parts of the county experienced low voter turnout, while voters in rural and suburban parts of the county came out in force.
That difference in turnout likely contributed to President Trump earning nearly 4,000 more votes here than during his 2016 election, according to a Blade analysis of the county’s unofficial election results.
Turnout was 50 percent or lower in much of East Toledo, the Old West End, and the central city, areas that handily went for Mr. Biden. Only a handful of precincts in west and south Toledo, where Mr. Biden led, saw more than 70 percent turnout, and no Toledo precinct was higher than 72 percent turnout.
The lowest turnout occurred in North Toledo’s Precinct 2, where only 33 percent of registered voters participated in the election — 74 percent of them in favor of Mr. Biden.
Has any explanation ever even been given why vote counting was shut down everywhere? At least in Georgia they have a BS “water pipe” excuse. But the other states - did they even try to explain why?
This claim is inaccurate. I did the math a few days ago comparing vote totals from 2016 to 2020 and both Trump and Biden are significantly up in vote totals from 2016 numbers in almost every state. This isn't exactly the same as every city, but I don't see how he could overperform in every state without also overperforming in the state's biggest cities.
The only states that Biden underperformed 2016 in are Illinois, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, and New York. Trump also got less votes in Maryland, Mississppi, and New Jersey.
Biden's votes (legitimate or not) are up an average of 19% across the country, median of 20.1%. Trump's are up an average of 12.4%, median of 10.6%.
You can't state definitively that the claim is inaccurate as your statement requires and assumption to be true. Go get the city data and make a stronger statement.
I don't think it's a huge logical leap that if both Trump and Biden overperformed 2016 numbers by 10-20% in most states that it means that Biden garnered more votes (legitimate or not) from most of the big cities in said states.
The only alternative is that he did significantly better in rural areas, which I think would be worse for Trump and also much more of a dramatic leap of logic.
But it is a logical leap that could be removed with the actual numbers. And, underperformed might not mean total votes, but percentage of votes. I heard this stat a while ago already, and it would be really nice if they would have presented the numbers to go with it.
I remember hearing something about Biden under performing in major cities (except swing states cities) in various demographics compared to Hillary Clinton. Blacks, Hispanics, women etc. I don't know, but perhaps that is where the data for this claim can be found.
Possibly. Obviously my count doesn't take into account voting demographics. I remember in Florida that Trump improved his vote share for all demographics except white men. Not sure how that applies across the country though.
Article quotes statistician saying Biden down in every major metro area except these four.
You haven’t provided ANY conclusive evidence to the contrary. City data or gtfo. You are comparing state averages but some states do not even have a major metro area, & others have multiple.
Your claims are like saying “it’s ridiculous to claim there are skyscrapers in every major metro area. The average skyscrapers count across all states is very low”.
I just did the same analysis with the 20 most populated US counties comparing 2016 and 2020 (plus Fulton County, Milwaukee County, and Philadelphia County which weren't in the top 20.)
In terms of raw votes, Biden did better than Clinton in every county except Miami-Dade, Kings and Queens county NY, Fulton County, and Philadelphia County.
In terms of vote share compared to Trump, Trump had higher vote shares this time around in 13 of the 23 counties compared to 2016. Interestingly Trump had higher vote shares against Biden this time around in Wayne County,Fulton County, and Philadelphia County, which are 3/4 counties that the OP says are the exceptions where Biden overperformed.
Trump gained significantly in Miami-Dade county (11.5 points), Kings County NY (7.3 points) and Queens County New York (8.1 points) and lost significantly in Tarrant County Texas (4.6 points.) The rest of the counties are within about +/- 3 points.
If you want to do more then freaking go for it bro! I had to transcribe the numbers by hand one by one for both 2016 and 2020 so it's not a trivial amount of work... There's like 3,000 counties in the USA.
It's admirable you would go to that effort. And I don't mean that sarcastically!
Imagine the effort Richard Baris who makes the original claim (and does this for a living) has gone to to validate it? I'm not saying trust all authority, but I happen to trust Baris' analysis over someone else's seat of the pants attempt to invalidate him. Baris' analysis and predictions on election night and onwards have proven very reliable!
Baris cites no numbers to make these claims, at least not in the article given.
I've given official numbers from the New York Times from 2016 and their current numbers from 2020 (for an apples to apples comparison), and even with only 23 counties, the data is sufficient to thoroughly disprove his claim.
Unless you have a citation of him explaining his process and findings more thoroughly, the data does NOT appear to support his conclusions.
The fraud is so obvious.
The facts:
Biden was underperforming Hillary everywhere on election night
Trump was winning all remaining states by big margins, that statisticians said were nearly impossible for Biden to overcome
Election was shut down
Suddenly Biden magically overperforms Hillary at 4am in all these cities and wins all of the swing states.
And California ballot harvested like a mofo to give Biden the illusory appearance of winning the popular vote.
this
Tell me more.
Remember those videos of people hauling bags of ballots in CA from mailboxes after Nov 4th, and the person recording was asking, "why are you still collecting ballots after the deadline?" I wondered the same thing. Why did CA votes matter? Then I kept hearing Joe talk about his popular vote win of 5 million... which incidentally is exactly the surplus of Biden votes to Trump in CA.
Edit to add: there's also zero risk of getting caught stuffing ballots for Biden when, given limited time/resources, nobody would demand an audit or recount in California since everyone accepts it's an easy win for Biden.
Yeah, I think a lot of it is psychological too. Everyone assumes California will vote blue so accepts a ridiculous outcome as normal.
Deep blue city in a "swing" state...Toledo (OH) Voter Turnout LESS THAN 50 PERCENT. No way Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee had ~90 percent turnout.
From Toledo Blade: https://archive.is/j96yH
Lucas County voter turnout lowest in precincts that voted for Biden
Maricopa county in AZ (Phoenix metro area) is reporting an 80 PERCENT turnout
Has any explanation ever even been given why vote counting was shut down everywhere? At least in Georgia they have a BS “water pipe” excuse. But the other states - did they even try to explain why?
I think it was “crew rest” in Nevada
Because Nevada of all places couldn't find workers who were okay with staying up late and counting things...
Ha! Casino joke.
This claim is inaccurate. I did the math a few days ago comparing vote totals from 2016 to 2020 and both Trump and Biden are significantly up in vote totals from 2016 numbers in almost every state. This isn't exactly the same as every city, but I don't see how he could overperform in every state without also overperforming in the state's biggest cities.
The only states that Biden underperformed 2016 in are Illinois, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, and New York. Trump also got less votes in Maryland, Mississppi, and New Jersey.
Biden's votes (legitimate or not) are up an average of 19% across the country, median of 20.1%. Trump's are up an average of 12.4%, median of 10.6%.
https://imgur.com/coiw0tJ
You can't state definitively that the claim is inaccurate as your statement requires and assumption to be true. Go get the city data and make a stronger statement.
I don't think it's a huge logical leap that if both Trump and Biden overperformed 2016 numbers by 10-20% in most states that it means that Biden garnered more votes (legitimate or not) from most of the big cities in said states.
The only alternative is that he did significantly better in rural areas, which I think would be worse for Trump and also much more of a dramatic leap of logic.
But it is a logical leap that could be removed with the actual numbers. And, underperformed might not mean total votes, but percentage of votes. I heard this stat a while ago already, and it would be really nice if they would have presented the numbers to go with it.
https://thedonald.win/p/11Q8gnbumH/x/c/1Bjs1BmAKf
I'm glad that we call out our own fake news.
Apparently still getting downvoted for it, lol.
Full numbers that I used are here for anyone interested.
https://i.imgur.com/ZU2wodN.png
I remember hearing something about Biden under performing in major cities (except swing states cities) in various demographics compared to Hillary Clinton. Blacks, Hispanics, women etc. I don't know, but perhaps that is where the data for this claim can be found.
Possibly. Obviously my count doesn't take into account voting demographics. I remember in Florida that Trump improved his vote share for all demographics except white men. Not sure how that applies across the country though.
He couldn’t really improve his standing among white men. He was at 100% of the alpha Chad vote and 0% of the soyboy vote.
Article quotes statistician saying Biden down in every major metro area except these four.
You haven’t provided ANY conclusive evidence to the contrary. City data or gtfo. You are comparing state averages but some states do not even have a major metro area, & others have multiple.
Your claims are like saying “it’s ridiculous to claim there are skyscrapers in every major metro area. The average skyscrapers count across all states is very low”.
I just did the same analysis with the 20 most populated US counties comparing 2016 and 2020 (plus Fulton County, Milwaukee County, and Philadelphia County which weren't in the top 20.)
Results are here: https://i.imgur.com/TWc3acS.png
In terms of raw votes, Biden did better than Clinton in every county except Miami-Dade, Kings and Queens county NY, Fulton County, and Philadelphia County.
In terms of vote share compared to Trump, Trump had higher vote shares this time around in 13 of the 23 counties compared to 2016. Interestingly Trump had higher vote shares against Biden this time around in Wayne County,Fulton County, and Philadelphia County, which are 3/4 counties that the OP says are the exceptions where Biden overperformed.
Trump gained significantly in Miami-Dade county (11.5 points), Kings County NY (7.3 points) and Queens County New York (8.1 points) and lost significantly in Tarrant County Texas (4.6 points.) The rest of the counties are within about +/- 3 points.
Happy?
u/–arandoperosn
That's some nice analysis.
very limiting to only look at 20 most populous counties !!!
If you want to do more then freaking go for it bro! I had to transcribe the numbers by hand one by one for both 2016 and 2020 so it's not a trivial amount of work... There's like 3,000 counties in the USA.
It's admirable you would go to that effort. And I don't mean that sarcastically!
Imagine the effort Richard Baris who makes the original claim (and does this for a living) has gone to to validate it? I'm not saying trust all authority, but I happen to trust Baris' analysis over someone else's seat of the pants attempt to invalidate him. Baris' analysis and predictions on election night and onwards have proven very reliable!
Baris cites no numbers to make these claims, at least not in the article given.
I've given official numbers from the New York Times from 2016 and their current numbers from 2020 (for an apples to apples comparison), and even with only 23 counties, the data is sufficient to thoroughly disprove his claim.
Unless you have a citation of him explaining his process and findings more thoroughly, the data does NOT appear to support his conclusions.
Exactly, some people just throw out claims without even checking it. And then users here downvote you because they are lazy too.
In Michigan Trump gained 500 votes from a county next to Kent Grand Rapids very conservative county.
In Kent County Biden gained a 9% more than Hillary and turned it from a solid Red to Blue county, its fraud.
Fraud on a massive level.
Voting for Prom King and Queen is MORE secure than our election system.
He didn't underperform everywhere else or he wouldn't be ahead of Hillary by 12 million votes. stop spreading fake bullshit.
Why are you getting downvoted?
fakers are upset
But..but... it was her turn 😭.
I hope someone is filling binders full of these factoids
BINGO