My understanding of what I saw in Shiva's video (and I didn't watch the entire thing) was that it showed an algorithmic effect to start skewing the results once it got to a certain threshold.
i.e. It wasn't natural, something artificial on the count was happening.
Correct. But the slope down is strange enough on its own. That means those Republicans who lived in heavily Republican areas would ignore the reinforcement of both confirmation bias and peer pressure and would get more rogue as the concentration of Republicans increased.
Arithmetically you would expect to see a higher number... but NOT as a function of a higher percentage.
Disclaimer: I believe this election was stolen and that there was massive fraud. But Shrivas graphs does not show fraud in the way he explained it.
It was obvious that Shrivas expectation that the graph should be straight was false.
He and this guy make the wrong conclusions based on the wrong assumptions.
You have to ask yourself what kind of voter will be voting for Biden only or Trump only? I argue that it is democrats that vote TRUMP because they like trump this election, but they don't want to vote for the rest of the republican party. And I argue that it is republicans that vote for BIDEN because they like biden this election (or dislike trump), but they don't want to vote for the rest of the democratic party.
It is wrong to assume that it is only republicans who would vote Trump only and only democrats that vote Biden only.
This is proven by looking at the graph with dem%. It is also slanted from top to bottom.
low dem area -> high biden
high dem area -> high trump
low rep area -> high trump
high rep area -> high biden
I am only arguing against the notion that the graph should be flat, which was Shrivas expectation. I don't have an opinion on if the graphs show fraud in any other way.
The lone Biden votes were not Biden only. They were votes for Biden on a split ticket. It just means a vote for Biden on a ballot that also had votes for at least some Republicans.
Pretty sure that is the gist of it.
And, one WOULD expect a higher number of 'defections' where there are more Republicans... BUT, that does not mean one would expect a higher PERCENTAGE of defectors.
The 'flat line' graph would be if the same PERCENT of Republican defectors was seen across all precincts.
I cannot rationalize why the percentage would go UP 15-20% as you got into deeper red territory.
The lone Biden votes were not Biden only. They were votes for Biden on a split ticket. It just means a vote for Biden on a ballot that also had votes for at least some Republicans.
If this is the case then I have misunderstood it.
But I don't think it changes anything. Because the more republican an area is the more republican there are which might split the ticket to biden only + some rep votes.
And, one WOULD expect a higher number of 'defections' where there are more Republicans... BUT, that does not mean one would expect a higher PERCENTAGE of defectors.
The 'flat line' graph would be if the same PERCENT of Republican defectors was seen across all precincts.
I cannot rationalize why the percentage would go UP 15-20% as you got into deeper red territory.
Yes but the percentage that splits is the same. The problem is that the % used to paint the y-axis is not calculated towards the total of votes. It is calculated compared to all CANDIDATE ONLY VOTES.
So in republican areas you have MORE people splitting to biden than there are democrats splitting to trump. Because there are many more republicans than democrats. This is what makes this graphs so confusing for so many..
You can see that the more democrat an area is, the more they just vote straight ticket. For republicans though the trendline is almost straight.
Who knows why, you could probably argue that either is how you would expect.
Straight trendline = everybody likes the candidate/party equally much, does not depend if he/she is lives in an area with lots of like minded or not.
Trendline going up the more DEM/GOP the area is = People just vote more straight the more DEM/GOP they are.
X is how DEM/GOP the precinct is, if people voted 50/50 that ratio is 0. If no one voted Biden that marker would be, on the x-axis, 100 on the top graph and 0 on the bottom one.
Y is how many of the respective voters voted straight or on the candidate independently. If value is above 50%, then it was more popular to vote straight then on the candidate independently.
Disclaimer: I might be thinking wrong or used the wrong values somehow, I used the data Stand-up Math put up.
My understanding of what I saw in Shiva's video (and I didn't watch the entire thing) was that it showed an algorithmic effect to start skewing the results once it got to a certain threshold.
i.e. It wasn't natural, something artificial on the count was happening.
Correct. But the slope down is strange enough on its own. That means those Republicans who lived in heavily Republican areas would ignore the reinforcement of both confirmation bias and peer pressure and would get more rogue as the concentration of Republicans increased.
Arithmetically you would expect to see a higher number... but NOT as a function of a higher percentage.
This can also be explained by any of the following:
Biden got more republicans to vote for him than Trump got democrats to vote for him. AKA Trump turned off moderate repubs who then voted for Joe.
This is also exactly what you would see if Dominion/Scytl was siphoning votes from Trump to Biden. THIS IS WHY WE NEED TO AUDIT THE VOTES!!!!
Disclaimer: I believe this election was stolen and that there was massive fraud. But Shrivas graphs does not show fraud in the way he explained it.
It was obvious that Shrivas expectation that the graph should be straight was false.
He and this guy make the wrong conclusions based on the wrong assumptions.
You have to ask yourself what kind of voter will be voting for Biden only or Trump only? I argue that it is democrats that vote TRUMP because they like trump this election, but they don't want to vote for the rest of the republican party. And I argue that it is republicans that vote for BIDEN because they like biden this election (or dislike trump), but they don't want to vote for the rest of the democratic party.
It is wrong to assume that it is only republicans who would vote Trump only and only democrats that vote Biden only.
This is proven by looking at the graph with dem%. It is also slanted from top to bottom.
low dem area -> high biden
high dem area -> high trump
low rep area -> high trump
high rep area -> high biden
I am only arguing against the notion that the graph should be flat, which was Shrivas expectation. I don't have an opinion on if the graphs show fraud in any other way.
The lone Biden votes were not Biden only. They were votes for Biden on a split ticket. It just means a vote for Biden on a ballot that also had votes for at least some Republicans.
Pretty sure that is the gist of it.
And, one WOULD expect a higher number of 'defections' where there are more Republicans... BUT, that does not mean one would expect a higher PERCENTAGE of defectors.
The 'flat line' graph would be if the same PERCENT of Republican defectors was seen across all precincts.
I cannot rationalize why the percentage would go UP 15-20% as you got into deeper red territory.
If this is the case then I have misunderstood it.
But I don't think it changes anything. Because the more republican an area is the more republican there are which might split the ticket to biden only + some rep votes.
Yes but the percentage that splits is the same. The problem is that the % used to paint the y-axis is not calculated towards the total of votes. It is calculated compared to all CANDIDATE ONLY VOTES.
So in republican areas you have MORE people splitting to biden than there are democrats splitting to trump. Because there are many more republicans than democrats. This is what makes this graphs so confusing for so many..
I did like this https://imgur.com/a/QNu40GN
You can see that the more democrat an area is, the more they just vote straight ticket. For republicans though the trendline is almost straight. Who knows why, you could probably argue that either is how you would expect.
Straight trendline = everybody likes the candidate/party equally much, does not depend if he/she is lives in an area with lots of like minded or not.
Trendline going up the more DEM/GOP the area is = People just vote more straight the more DEM/GOP they are.
X is how DEM/GOP the precinct is, if people voted 50/50 that ratio is 0. If no one voted Biden that marker would be, on the x-axis, 100 on the top graph and 0 on the bottom one.
Y is how many of the respective voters voted straight or on the candidate independently. If value is above 50%, then it was more popular to vote straight then on the candidate independently.
Disclaimer: I might be thinking wrong or used the wrong values somehow, I used the data Stand-up Math put up.