How would that change the bellwethers? It wouldn't at all. Unless you're saying that mail-in voting caused there to be massive amounts of fraudulent ballots. Then it would change things.
And for the record, Trump didn't just win the bellwether counties, he fucking smashed them. With double digit leads. One of them was a 23 point lead.
My point is that it wouldn't necessarily change the bellwether counties at all, but enough other counties get a much higher Dem turnout. The bellwether counties are a statistical anomaly. There is a predictable correlation between how they vote and how the rest of the country votes. It's not unreasonable to assume the voting population demographic could change drastically, but affect different counties/states/regions differently, potentially having little affect on bellwethers, but having a massive effect elsewhere.
This explanation is plausible, even if it's not likely. Since there are other plausible explanations, the statistics and probability in the OP post don't tell the whole story, and can't be taken at face value.
Yeah, that's ridiculous. It's not plausible at all. It might be technically possible, but it's highly implausible to the point that no reasonable person would even consider it. The voting was not very different, despite the mail-in ballots in most places. The anomalies only exist in important swing state counties. In most counties, the turnout is consistent and normal. Then you have certain fraud-ridden democrat counties, such as some in Detroit that have 80+% turnout because of obvious fraud.
How would that change the bellwethers? It wouldn't at all. Unless you're saying that mail-in voting caused there to be massive amounts of fraudulent ballots. Then it would change things.
And for the record, Trump didn't just win the bellwether counties, he fucking smashed them. With double digit leads. One of them was a 23 point lead.
My point is that it wouldn't necessarily change the bellwether counties at all, but enough other counties get a much higher Dem turnout. The bellwether counties are a statistical anomaly. There is a predictable correlation between how they vote and how the rest of the country votes. It's not unreasonable to assume the voting population demographic could change drastically, but affect different counties/states/regions differently, potentially having little affect on bellwethers, but having a massive effect elsewhere.
This explanation is plausible, even if it's not likely. Since there are other plausible explanations, the statistics and probability in the OP post don't tell the whole story, and can't be taken at face value.
Yeah, that's ridiculous. It's not plausible at all. It might be technically possible, but it's highly implausible to the point that no reasonable person would even consider it. The voting was not very different, despite the mail-in ballots in most places. The anomalies only exist in important swing state counties. In most counties, the turnout is consistent and normal. Then you have certain fraud-ridden democrat counties, such as some in Detroit that have 80+% turnout because of obvious fraud.