The "official" results are that Joe Biden will win 306 electoral votes
States that Trump's team and/or third parties are contesting (EVs):
- PA 20
- MI 16
- GA 16
- AZ 11
- WI 10
- NV 6
- Virginia is 16 but for some reason, Trump's team isn't contesting it and I think it's probably too late for any challenge to succeed there. I may be wrong, though.
To deny Biden the 270 he needs, we need to flip 37 EVs, which would be three contested states at a minimum. No two states will be enough as even with PA and one of MI/GA Biden would still be at exactly 270.
Pennsylvania is looking to be the most likely, so then if Trump wins PA, Biden is at 286 and taking any other two contested states would be enough. Except that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada wouldn't be enough by themselves and would require at least one other state.
From my analysis, I believe that after Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are the two most likely, at least to be accomplished through the legislatures. What does everyone else think? Another possibility is that the Supreme Court throws out a few states, bypassing state legislatures, and sending the election to house delegations instead.
Georgia and Wisconsin have to be the best path
GA should be a slam dunk.
Yup
Wisconsin will fall. The indefinite confinement explicitly excluded coronavirus as a reason. So many people illegally voted in Wi.
And signature matching jn Ga seems to sound like easiest
AZ I think could flip too.
We need to flip public opinion.
As Bannon said, if one falls, they all fall.
Public opinion is key. Lots of people were upset over the lack of people at the rallies, but I think we've proven in DC that we can get people out if we really need to. I'm encouraged by the Twitter hashtags, a lot more people will see that then will see the rallies/protests.
GA and NV
How it all shakes out is going to depend on how PA is won, and whether it goes all the way to the Supreme Court.
You might see a situation where a judgement throwing out the mail-ins in PA is not appealed upwards by the state, specifically to avoid the Supreme Court weighing in, since PA alone doesn't get Trump over the top. That sounds insane but we're already way down the rabbit hole at this point.