The "official" results are that Joe Biden will win 306 electoral votes
States that Trump's team and/or third parties are contesting (EVs):
- PA 20
- MI 16
- GA 16
- AZ 11
- WI 10
- NV 6
- Virginia is 16 but for some reason, Trump's team isn't contesting it and I think it's probably too late for any challenge to succeed there. I may be wrong, though.
To deny Biden the 270 he needs, we need to flip 37 EVs, which would be three contested states at a minimum. No two states will be enough as even with PA and one of MI/GA Biden would still be at exactly 270.
Pennsylvania is looking to be the most likely, so then if Trump wins PA, Biden is at 286 and taking any other two contested states would be enough. Except that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada wouldn't be enough by themselves and would require at least one other state.
From my analysis, I believe that after Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are the two most likely, at least to be accomplished through the legislatures. What does everyone else think? Another possibility is that the Supreme Court throws out a few states, bypassing state legislatures, and sending the election to house delegations instead.
How it all shakes out is going to depend on how PA is won, and whether it goes all the way to the Supreme Court.
You might see a situation where a judgement throwing out the mail-ins in PA is not appealed upwards by the state, specifically to avoid the Supreme Court weighing in, since PA alone doesn't get Trump over the top. That sounds insane but we're already way down the rabbit hole at this point.