that's a great thread of statistical impossibilities. also yes get the fucking emails/texts/call log of all the states that stopped for no reason only to keep counting once republican poll watchers took their word and left.
Agree. I feel like we have to have more than they’re showing cause it doesn’t feel like we’re pressing frantically. I guess we will find out within two weeks
The U.S. has 3,142 counties/county equivalents and those can have MANY voting precincts within them, but I can't seem to find a reliable number for that... but we're talking 200,000+ voting precincts.
If we assume there's a 100% chance at least one random precinct will have the observed pattern (which is wrong), then the probability of any specific precinct having the pattern is 1/200000, predictably. The odds of two having that pattern is 0.000000002%.
Since the probability of this event happening at all is extremely low (maybe 0.5% for any given election), we're looking at 0.00000000000625% chance to happen in two precincts in the same election.
That's more likely than the claim, but, quite shockingly, not by much... I think someone just didn't convert to ratio or percentage in one step or reapply P(A∩B) after adjusting the initial probability (acting directly on the output of the probability instead of recalculating it).
Easy to justify when you LITERALLY believe your ideas will bring about heaven on earth.
that's a great thread of statistical impossibilities. also yes get the fucking emails/texts/call log of all the states that stopped for no reason only to keep counting once republican poll watchers took their word and left.
Point out the upper level people involved.. They need to sweat a little having their names out in the open
Agree. I feel like we have to have more than they’re showing cause it doesn’t feel like we’re pressing frantically. I guess we will find out within two weeks
Go home guys games over
Pipe burst
Dog ate homework
I thought the same thing the other day too.
Suppose you're generous and suppose a single worker can count 10,000 ballots per hour. Now, all the workers stopped counting because they were tired.
Do the math: zero workers x 10000 ballots/hour = zero ballots/hour. Simple as.
So your saying there’s a chance? - Lloyd Christmas
The U.S. has 3,142 counties/county equivalents and those can have MANY voting precincts within them, but I can't seem to find a reliable number for that... but we're talking 200,000+ voting precincts.
If we assume there's a 100% chance at least one random precinct will have the observed pattern (which is wrong), then the probability of any specific precinct having the pattern is 1/200000, predictably. The odds of two having that pattern is 0.000000002%.
Since the probability of this event happening at all is extremely low (maybe 0.5% for any given election), we're looking at 0.00000000000625% chance to happen in two precincts in the same election.
That's more likely than the claim, but, quite shockingly, not by much... I think someone just didn't convert to ratio or percentage in one step or reapply P(A∩B) after adjusting the initial probability (acting directly on the output of the probability instead of recalculating it).
That's the exact same odds I came up with via mental math. 1 in a quadrillion.
Joe's a lucky guy, I guess.
Luckiest and most popular man in the history of the universe.
Most mentally and physically fit as well.
add three more
1E15
Add in the odds that Trump predicted it in his late might speech.
Him losing the bellwether counties and winning the presidency is 1 in 10 quadrillion
In other words .. this black swan event is less. Likely than aliens landing their spacecraft and announcing their take over of the planet.
A quadrillion
Facts are racist! /s
So YouR TElLiNg Me THerE iS a chAnCE?
This is the same chance as winning Powerball 333 MILLION TIMES! FUCK ME!
How many zeroes is that!?
We know... we need a court to overturn this nonsense and allow the people to keep their country.
“So....you’re saying there’s a chance...YES!”
Maybe they have patrick from spongebob counting the votes. Oh boy 4 AM, it's time to start counting those biden mail in ballots.
1 in a quadrillion?