I'm curious what would happen if one of a handful of states not totally reliant on the federal government's teats for survival was to secede. I think we need to consider this among the options we have left. At least possibly preparing for this scenario by moving to these states and consolidating our influence. What would be the feds response if this was to happen?
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Don't like it. Weakens us geopolitically. If we break up by states, the Chinese would have at least one entire seaboard to be a potential beachhead, where the coastal population would at best offer no substantial organic resistance. At worst, they would be invited. If we cut that out of the equation, it would most likely create lots of economic turmoil and refugee crises.
We only have the idea of red states and blue states because of the EC. It operates in units of EVs but these are almost always cast in blocs that represent the state level. The political leanings of communities are better described at the county level, but counties are generally too small to be economically independent. Even blocs of "blue counties" would not be viable without trade from "red counties." This balkanization would, in my estimation, create a lot of logistical problems with the obtainability of basic goods, stuff at the bottom of Maslow's hierarchy, for people in the blue counties and probably also adjacent red counties. What used to be simple domestic trade now becomes more complex international trade involving tariffs, customs, etc. This would result in a huge refugee problem as those in the blue counties and probably adjacent red counties would try to flee to more economically stable areas of New Conservative America. We can look back through history and see examples of similar dynamics, look at Europe as borders were redrawn after both world wars.
A breakup by states is probably more technically plausible, but if that happened, red states would end up with even worse refugee problems. Blue states would be a lot more likely to be economically independent, but as the blue states would rapidly shift towards Marxism and away from a capitalist economy, the producers (generally blue-collar conservatives) would quickly become disenfranchised and look to escape. Again, we can look back through history for examples. Thinking of Soviet Russia in the aftermath of the revolution in the '20s and '30s, or basically any other socialist revolution that's taken place anywhere, ever.