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posted ago by metropolinational +338 / -0

Dear Pedes, I am posting this on behalf of a friend who has not been able to get this message out. I think this is an incredibly important analysis. It shows statistical evidence of how the dominion systems cost Trump 300K votes across the swing states.

We've done an analysis of the 20 years worth of election and census data, constructing longitudinal predictive models of election results for all 3000 US counties. All of these models have R-Squared predictive indices over 95%. Unique among all models, the 2020 model has a highly statistically significant effect (p<0.001) against Trump among the states that used the Dominion systems. Digging further into the swing states, there is a larger and even more statistically significant effect. It is important to note that this effect was not observed for prior elections (we show the 2016 results here), only the 2020 election. As you can see from the final model among swing states, there is an inexplicable 1.8% switch away from Trump (negative values are bad for Trump in this model). Across 348 counties, with an average population of 47,000, this adds up to 296,000 votes. That is more than the entire margin across the swing states right now! We have uploaded a .CSV file with the county-level election and census data to Github.

https://github.com/trainingvirtue/2020-Election-Data-and-Analysis

We have also uploaded a number of screenshots of the analysis which are listed below:

Figure 1A shows the result of the 2016 election model. Figure 1B shows the result of the above model with the Dominion/Diebold Systems (dss). Note that this variable was not at all close to being statistically significant. Figure 2A shows the result of the 2020 model. Figure 2B shows the result of the 2020 model with the Dominion variable included. As you can see it is statistically significant. Figure 2C shows the results narrowing down to the effect of Dominion, only on the swing states, which you can see is much larger. Figure 3 shows summary characteristics of residuals from the model in Figure 2A by swing vs non-swing state and Dominion vs non-Dominon county. Essentially, the swing state counties went consistently to Trump above what the model predicted. This is the landslide that we all saw in the early evening of November 3rd. The errors completely reverse, however, among the Dominion counties. Figure 4 shows the total vote by swing vs non-swing state and Dominion vs non-Dominion. This shows that the average swing state Dominion county had a voter population of 46,756.

Given the model results and the size of the counties, we can calculate that 1.81% x 46,756 = 846 lost Trump votes per county. If we multiply this by the 348 counties, we calculate 294,507 lost votes for Donald Trump. This is more than the total lead for Joe Biden across the swing states. Please post and disseminate the attached summary figure anywhere you'd like! If someone could help to make memes out of this, we would love it! If any of you have a twitter account that you could use tweet this to the Trump lawyers, please do so.

Dear Pedes, I am posting this on behalf of a friend who has not been able to get this message out. I think this is an incredibly important analysis. It shows statistical evidence of how the dominion systems cost Trump 300K votes across the swing states. We've done an analysis of the 20 years worth of election and census data, constructing longitudinal predictive models of election results for all 3000 US counties. All of these models have R-Squared predictive indices over 95%. Unique among all models, the 2020 model has a highly statistically significant effect (p<0.001) against Trump among the states that used the Dominion systems. Digging further into the swing states, there is a larger and even more statistically significant effect. It is important to note that this effect was not observed for prior elections (we show the 2016 results here), only the 2020 election. As you can see from the final model among swing states, there is an inexplicable 1.8% switch away from Trump (negative values are bad for Trump in this model). Across 348 counties, with an average population of 47,000, this adds up to 296,000 votes. That is more than the entire margin across the swing states right now! We have uploaded a .CSV file with the county-level election and census data to Github. https://github.com/trainingvirtue/2020-Election-Data-and-Analysis We have also uploaded a number of screenshots of the analysis which are listed below: Figure 1A shows the result of the 2016 election model. Figure 1B shows the result of the above model with the Dominion/Diebold Systems (dss). Note that this variable was not at all close to being statistically significant. Figure 2A shows the result of the 2020 model. Figure 2B shows the result of the 2020 model with the Dominion variable included. As you can see it is statistically significant. Figure 2C shows the results narrowing down to the effect of Dominion, only on the swing states, which you can see is much larger. Figure 3 shows summary characteristics of residuals from the model in Figure 2A by swing vs non-swing state and Dominion vs non-Dominon county. Essentially, the swing state counties went consistently to Trump above what the model predicted. This is the landslide that we all saw in the early evening of November 3rd. The errors completely reverse, however, among the Dominion counties. Figure 4 shows the total vote by swing vs non-swing state and Dominion vs non-Dominion. This shows that the average swing state Dominion county had a voter population of 46,756. Given the model results and the size of the counties, we can calculate that 1.81% x 46,756 = 846 lost Trump votes per county. If we multiply this by the 348 counties, we calculate 294,507 lost votes for Donald Trump. This is more than the total lead for Joe Biden across the swing states. Please post and disseminate the attached summary figure anywhere you'd like! If someone could help to make memes out of this, we would love it! If any of you have a twitter account that you could use tweet this to the Trump lawyers, please do so.
Comments (16)
sorted by:
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KilroyJCNJ 6 points ago +6 / -0

Have your friend message the mods and u/Tommy_Patriot to get that data directly to the team that can use it!

3
metropolinational [S] 3 points ago +3 / -0

No but I will right now. thank you! the data is all right there on GitHub. Anyone can download it right this second.

4
Dergy 4 points ago +4 / -0

We got it to the right people, and it's just the information we were looking for. Thank you very much!!!!

2
metropolinational [S] 2 points ago +2 / -0

thank you!! great to hear.

3
metropolinational [S] 3 points ago +3 / -0

I will right now! thank you! the data is all available at the link. anyone can download it right now, by the way.

2
deleted 2 points ago +2 / -0
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metropolinational [S] 2 points ago +2 / -0

wow thank you!! we have been looking for this type of resource! we would love to join the discord

1
deleted 1 point ago +1 / -0
5
TippyTop1987 5 points ago +5 / -0

TO THE TOP!!!

4
Rusty_Bungus 4 points ago +4 / -0

So you are telling me you have a friend who can do advanced statistical analysis but can't post to a message board? Seriously?

1
metropolinational [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

hehe - it happens!

0
deleted 0 points ago +1 / -1
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Rusty_Bungus 2 points ago +2 / -0

Did he do the analysis via abacus and slide rule?

3
metropolinational [S] 3 points ago +3 / -0

Happy to answer any questions about this analysis. I have not seen this done yet so sorry if old news. But if this has not been done, it needs to get to the Trump team somehow!

1
Dergy 1 point ago +2 / -1

I'll put you in as a POC if the programmers have any questions.

2
metropolinational [S] 2 points ago +2 / -0

please do! thank you!