The probability of former Vice President Biden winning the popular vote in the four Defendant states -- Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- independently given President Trump's early lead in those States as of 3 a.m. on November 4, 2020, is less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000. For former Vice President Biden to win those four states collectively, the odds increase to one in a quadrillion to the 4th power
So those are big numbers, I work with stats quite a lot, and I figured I would give a decent visualization.
First of all, one in a quadrillion to the 4th power is a 1 with 60 zeros behind it, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
That's such a large number, it becomes meaningless to most people, it's impossible to fathom.
So let's talk lottery odds, since that's a little bit more close to home.
The rough odds (according to Lottery USA) of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are 1 in 302.6 million. The rough odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are 1 in 292.2 million.
That's still nowhere near our number, so let's up the improbability.
The odds of winning BOTH the Mega Millions jackpot AND the Powerball jackpot combined for a rough win of more than a billion dollars comes out to 1 in 88 quadrillion.
Now we're getting somewhere.
Now, statistically, you actually have around a 25% better chance at winning both the Mega Millions jackpot and the Powerball jackpot combined, THREE TIMES IN A ROW, than Joe Biden did at legitimately winning the 2020 election when the numbers were reported Nov 4 at 3 am.
EDIT: title should have been et al. not et All, my bad, still on my first cup of covfefe.
EDIT 2: Another example, you would have similar odds of picking a single atom out of the estimated number of atoms in the known, observable universe (1 in 10^78 - 10^82), Biden had ~1 in 10^60.
Yes, if you spend 12x the GDP of the entire world combined, every year, for a number of years that is quadrillions ^ 3 of times longer than it will take for the sun to become a red giant and engulf the earth.
So... a chance.
Biden campaign team: https://media.giphy.com/media/1HH6lJOzOXAY/giphy.gif
Remember. He's the most popular American politician of all time.
RED PILL!
Now, statistically, you actually have around a 25% better chance at winning both the Mega Millions jackpot and the Powerball jackpot combined, THREE TIMES IN A ROW, than Joe Biden did at legitimately winning the 2020 election when the numbers were reported Nov 4 at 3 am.
Fuck me sideways.... god damed pinko commies.
Where is that probability calculated?
Decl. of Charles J. Cicchetti, Ph.D. (“Cicchetti Decl.”) at ¶¶ 14-21, 30-31 (App. 4a-7a, 9a) in the court documents.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22O155/163048/20201208132827887_TX-v-State-ExpedMot%202020-12-07%20FINAL.pdf
"ITS SCIENCE"
Kinda makes the Clintons cattle futures picks pale by comparison. The odds of her her making the picks she did to turn $1000 into $100,000 WITHOUT insider trading info was 30 trillion to one. Rookie numbers, by comparison.
Very rookie numbers, these numbers are rapidly approaching the estimated number of atoms in the known universe.
so how did they calculate that number to begin with?
Decl. of Charles J. Cicchetti, Ph.D. (“Cicchetti Decl.”) at ¶¶ 14-21, 30-31 (App. 4a-7a, 9a) in the court documents.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22O155/163048/20201208132827887_TX-v-State-ExpedMot%202020-12-07%20FINAL.pdf
thank you kind sir
And if I'm not mistaking, the initial calculation is just for Biden to win. Every new vote they find for him makes the odds even more implausible
Correct, these are really rough numbers.
The actual calculation is that Biden had LESS than a 1 in a quadrillion chance of winning.
Also, a more accurate statement would be that if you won both lotteries FOUR times in a row, you would actually only have 88x more of a chance than Biden did, it would be like the difference between 0.0000000000000001% and 0.0000000000000088% except WAY more zeros.
In my best Lloyd Christmas voice “What was all that 1 in a quadrillion talk?”
The problem is people that don't understand numbers see math as some sort of wizardry an they don't believe in magic. A lot of problems with scientist/math folks is that they over-complicate things to demonstrate how brilliant that they are. Other science/math folks are very impressed, but the other 99.9% of society don't understand it and don't care. As a good scientist you have to dumb things down, and present simplified raw data, and straight forward charts.
Unless like with COVID you have the full force of the media telling people what to think.
Exactly, that's why I tried to break it down into easier to perceive numbers. When you get into trillions and quadrillions (even billions) a lot of people struggle to comprehend them. Quintillions + I have trouble comprehending and have to break them down myself to really remind my self HOW big the numbers are. It's insane.
It isn't you. Many people just shut down when they see numbers. Your explanation was pretty good, I thought.
Realistically, I say that once you go beyond 1 in 10,000, if you're talking about something that happens once every four years, you're just playing make pretend.
Sure 1 in 10,000 is nothing if it pertains to human population or something. But if you have a 1 in 10,000 possibility of picking a gold nugget up from a creek and only one person tries once every four years, it's just not gonna happen.
We're approaching 1 in the estimated number of atoms in the known universe.
Hello fellow numbers Pede :D Excellent analogy!