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posted ago by TheNixonTapes ago by TheNixonTapes +8314 / -10

Things are not over. But let me put SCOTUS into perspective.

Yes, GA, PA, MI, and WI, all violated the Constitution. All serious people concur with that assessment. But standing, objectively, was going to be difficult to assert. Texas did make a pretty creative argument, to be sure. Standing was sort of 50-50 given there is literally no precedent for this type of suit. We must commend those who stood with us, even against the odds. Everyone else, fuck 'em.

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Apart from the Texas suit, you must keep in mind all election-related lawsuits can be distinguished by the the stage during the election period they are brought, the parties bringing them, and the court in which they are brought.

There are three defined stages to this fight: (A) pre-election litigation; (B) post-election, pre-certification litigation; and (C) post-election, post-certification litigation.

The parties relevant for our purposes are (1) POTUS in his personal capacity/Trump campaign and (2) all other third parties (e.g., state-level GOP, private citizens, such as Sidney P and L. Wood and their plaintiffs, etc.).

The courts are obviously distinguished between State (S) and Federal (F).

[I will occasionally combine these alphanumeric references to discuss particular litigation strategies. For example, a reference to an (A-1-F) lawsuit would reference a pre-election lawsuit (A) brought by POTUS (1) in Federal court (F).]

Most of the attention-grabbing litigation has been post-election, pre-certification lawsuits brought by third parties in Federal court (B-2-F). From a strategy standpoint, these suits puzzled me.

First, Federal court was always less desirable of a venue than State court, because Federal courts almost never intervene in post-election matters. (The only exception to that general rule is an appeal from a state court of last resort to SCOTUS, such as Bush v. Gore.)

Second, these (B-2-F) lawsuits sought to enjoin certification of the state election results. I am unaware of any court ever granting this type of relief. The reason no such relief has ever been granted is because the laws of almost every state require certification of results before one can file an election contest in court. (Some states also require certification as a condition precedent to requesting a recount and/or for an automatic recount to occur.)

While POTUS did attempt to stop PA and MI certifications, several factors diminished the feasibility of those suits as time progressed, a subject which I do not discuss here.

The key lawsuits to watch have always been the election contests.

First, an election contest was how Bush v. Gore got to SCOTUS, which demonstrates how these types of lawsuits present a more plausible path to SCOTUS review.

Second, standing is almost never a problem, because most state statutes only permit the candidates to bring election contests. The candidate always meets the three key requirements of standing (injury in fact, causation, and redressability).

Third, election contests must be brought in state court. Another issue with Federal court is that many of the arguments in the post-election lawsuits have focused on violations of state law. Federal courts do not interpret state law, cannot be called upon to enforce state law, and do not remedy violations of state law. The only time a Federal court examines a state law is when the court is examining whether the state law violates the Federal constitution.

Fourth, and this is the good part, POTUS has at least four active election contests that have been filed sort of under the radar:

-There is one in Wisconsin (10 EV), which the Wisconsin supreme court is set to hear tomorrow.

-There is one in Georgia (16 EV), which has a better chance of success than Sidney P or Lin Wood's suits, precisely because POTUS is a party to this suit, suing in his personal capacity.

-There is one in Nevada (6 EV), which the NV supreme court rejected, making it now prime for appeal to the SCOTUS.

-There is another one in Arizona (11 EV), which the AZ supreme court rejected, and which AZ GOP Chairwoman Kelli Ward said they were appealing to SCOTUS.

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I would be lying to you all if I said this was not an uphill battle. It always has been. And I am always cognizant of us not turning into the "here's how Bernie can still win" type of people from 2016. But objectively speaking, it is still not over.

And I will say...

WE DESERVE OUR DAY IN COURT GODDAMMIT!

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NotTheTendies 38 points ago +47 / -9

After listening to the hearing today where the lawmakers clearly have no clue what their role and constitutional abilities are, it is evident that we are past end game. They have won. I am not being a doomer, I am being practical. We are far too in the hole now. I am standing by Trump and I have glimmers of hope left, but it is feeling as if we are on our last legs.

I don't want to turn into Bernie supporters thinking there is still hope when there clearly isn't any. Hope is just about gone now. I don't have faith in any of our elected officials and imagine many of them are compromised enough to the extent we will never know. Who knows if they will feel guilt for what they've done - collectively destroying the greatest nation on earth. Fuck. Please have me be wrong.

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BigPanda71 10 points ago +11 / -1

They don’t, and won’t ever, feel any guilt. Their future and their families futures are secured by the graft they’ve collected. They’ll have armed guards while trying to take away your right to self-defense. Their gated neighborhoods won’t deal with the crime waves caused by their not prosecuting criminality. Their kids won’t compete for jobs with the wave of immigrants they’ll let in. They won’t deal with the healthcare rationing of socialized medicine.

At this point there’s only one way aside from violence to make them pay. Declass EVERYTHING. SpyGate, Joe Biden’s Ukraine dealings, all of the shady shit Obama ever did. Don’t care what sources and methods it burns. Give them 48 hours to pull people out of harms way and then drop the bomb.

There’s no 2024 to fight for, because they’re going to try to put Trump and his kids in prison. They’re going to try to put Giuliani in prison. They’ll find some other reason to try to put Michael Flynn in prison. I’m sure Grenell is on their hit-list too. They’re going to go after everyone in the way we should have gone after Obama and his cronies, but didn’t because it’s banana republic shit. So burn it all down on the way out.

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deleted 2 points ago +2 / -0