Which will lead to the fall of the CCP. The reason the PLA hasn’t invaded Taiwan is that they are literally a paper tiger. The military is one of the most corrupt institutions in all of China. Imagine Saddam’s army but with nukes. Invading Taiwan would be suicide for the CCP, probably why they had to temper calls for war by the citizens a few months back.
Bit of both really. The Taiwanese military is small but motivated. They also have the benefit of having trained with US troops and well as the use of tried and tested foreign military hardware. Whilst I firmly believe the US will intervene in an invasion of Taiwan, the biggest weakness of the Chinese is the PLA. Despite the propaganda, the PLA is no where near as strong as it seems. Neither the officer and enlisted classes have any meaningful combat experience nor any real motivation to lay down their lives. The officer cadre are incredibly corrupt and really are business men at this point and the vast majority of the enlisted are peasants who joined to get a steady meal and an ok salary. That and the fact that Taiwan is fairly mountainous will make any invasion a slog through hell. It’s entirely possible that the failure to live up to expectations and fell such a small nation in one swoop will lead to a leadership struggle over the CCP and topple the government especially considering President Xi’s poor standing with the politburo and the general population.
Which will lead to the fall of the CCP. The reason the PLA hasn’t invaded Taiwan is that they are literally a paper tiger. The military is one of the most corrupt institutions in all of China. Imagine Saddam’s army but with nukes. Invading Taiwan would be suicide for the CCP, probably why they had to temper calls for war by the citizens a few months back.
Bit of both really. The Taiwanese military is small but motivated. They also have the benefit of having trained with US troops and well as the use of tried and tested foreign military hardware. Whilst I firmly believe the US will intervene in an invasion of Taiwan, the biggest weakness of the Chinese is the PLA. Despite the propaganda, the PLA is no where near as strong as it seems. Neither the officer and enlisted classes have any meaningful combat experience nor any real motivation to lay down their lives. The officer cadre are incredibly corrupt and really are business men at this point and the vast majority of the enlisted are peasants who joined to get a steady meal and an ok salary. That and the fact that Taiwan is fairly mountainous will make any invasion a slog through hell. It’s entirely possible that the failure to live up to expectations and fell such a small nation in one swoop will lead to a leadership struggle over the CCP and topple the government especially considering President Xi’s poor standing with the politburo and the general population.