Stick with me here because I did this research and math, sitting on the couch, with my phone. So, feel free to ask questions.
In 2018, there were 153M total voters registered. But now, in 2020, there were more than 155M votes cast. Obviously, it is possible that there were many new voter registrations between now and then. Studies showed Republican new voter registration was outpacing Democrats. These voter rolls are a mess. What percentage of the voter rolls are inaccurate? What percentage of voters voted?
Estimate with 153M control:
• 8% (very high estimate)(12.2M) (2020 new voter registrations study research source below) new voter registrations = 165M 2020 registered voters
• 10% (low average estimate) (source (12.5%) below) (16.5M) inaccuracies on the voter roll = 148.5M 2020 ACCURATE registered total voters
• 148.5M 2020 ACCURATE registered voters < 155M individual votes cast in 2020 General Election
Conclusion: Estimated 6.5M more votes cast (104.4%) than registered voters in 2020
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SAUCES:
• New Voter Registration favoring Republicans:
• Research shows “STEEP DECLINE” in new voter registration in 2020 as compared to 2016:
NOTE: The actual average percentage of new voter registrations is FAR below the allowance that I gave in the math above
• “From the Pew Center on the States, has been cited primarily for this startling fact: one in eight (12%+/-)—voter registrations in the United States are no longer valid or are significantly inaccurate.”
https://www.ncsl.org/documents/legismgt/elect/Canvass_Mar_2012_No_28.pdf
When I first heard someone claim over 100% voter turnout in MI, I figured it would be easy enough to fact check, so I did just that.
The state of Michigan officially reports over 8.1 million registered voters.
The most recent available census data gives them a population of 9.88 million with current projections around 9.99 million.
That means, residents not eligible to vote are around 1.89 million. That seems low to me considering it would include minors, convicted felons, and adults who simply don't care.
Since voting age is 18, I tallied up live birth numbers for the previous 17 years. That should give a reasonable approximation of the number of minors. It doesn't account for childhood mortality or families moving between states, but it gets us in the ballpark. The result? Over 2 million. This is where the alarms REALLY start to go off.
Historic voter registration rates are around 65% with 80-90% of registered voters participating in any given year. These numbers are taken from Pew Research, and the US Census Bureau confirms that Michigan falls within these parameters. It hasn't historically been a statistical outlier.
This means, either there are too many registered voters in Michigan, or the state population has been DRASTICALLY undercounted.
If we assume that 8.1 million is actually the number of ELIGIBLE voters, not the number of REGISTERED voters, then apply these registration and participation statistics, we don't come anywhere near the number of recorded votes in this election. Even if we adjust to a 75% registration rate, we still fall short of the observed vote total by over 100,000 votes.
And yes, I provided all my calculations, along with source data, to every appropriate outlet several weeks ago.