Please for the love of God, let's stop talking about the Benford's Law. It makes us look stupid.
If you spend 5 minutes reading about it, you see that it only applies to quantities with multiple orders of magnitude.
The number of votes in different precincts do not fall into that category.
It's almost as bad as that idiocy of the quadrillion chance that they put in the Texas lawsuit.
It's almost as bad as that idiocy of the quadrillion chance that they put in the Texas lawsuit.
That was a big oof, not sure why they bothered since the claims in that case didn't really require it. I guess they got some good mileage on TV saying "a quadrillion! that's a 1 with 15 zeroes! ain't that a big number!!".
You did not watch the video. He accuses Trump of fraud based on Trump's secondary and tertiary digits following Benford's law, and Biden's not. Take a look at 14:11. Doesn't that seem something odd?
If we don't challenge their bullshit, we accept their bullshit.
Regardless, if your point is that it is balls and courage are needed to win, then I agree.
It's been known since around the time that Benford came up with the law that it doesn't work for things like precinct numbers. They aren't random and they aren't on a large scale.
Think about how they even try to split some precincts up into near equal voting total expectations. How is Benford's Law going to apply when you guess that 50000 votes will be cast and split that into 90 precincts? 100% chance 5 will be the most common number then.
If every ballot had a unique identifying number and they went and created fake ballots... you'd actually probably still get Benford's Law to apply there since no way they would manually create the unique ID for those fake ballots but simply generate it and take their chances of a duplicate.
Please for the love of God, let's stop talking about the Benford's Law. It makes us look stupid.
If you spend 5 minutes reading about it, you see that it only applies to quantities with multiple orders of magnitude. The number of votes in different precincts do not fall into that category.
It's almost as bad as that idiocy of the quadrillion chance that they put in the Texas lawsuit.
That was a big oof, not sure why they bothered since the claims in that case didn't really require it. I guess they got some good mileage on TV saying "a quadrillion! that's a 1 with 15 zeroes! ain't that a big number!!".
You did not watch the video. He accuses Trump of fraud based on Trump's secondary and tertiary digits following Benford's law, and Biden's not. Take a look at 14:11. Doesn't that seem something odd?
If we don't challenge their bullshit, we accept their bullshit.
Regardless, if your point is that it is balls and courage are needed to win, then I agree.
Yes, here is a professor that wrote a paper about why:
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/inapB.pdf
It's been known since around the time that Benford came up with the law that it doesn't work for things like precinct numbers. They aren't random and they aren't on a large scale.
Think about how they even try to split some precincts up into near equal voting total expectations. How is Benford's Law going to apply when you guess that 50000 votes will be cast and split that into 90 precincts? 100% chance 5 will be the most common number then.
If every ballot had a unique identifying number and they went and created fake ballots... you'd actually probably still get Benford's Law to apply there since no way they would manually create the unique ID for those fake ballots but simply generate it and take their chances of a duplicate.
Oh boy! I sure trust a liberal professor from umich!