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castratedbob 1 point ago +1 / -0

Didn't a top US general state the entire network of bases in the SC sea could be taken care of in 15 mins? Alright, well, I guess this pushes it out to 20 mins tops. Let them keep wasting their money, they are already going broke rapidly. I think Xi will force a hot war to prevent economic collapse before this year is through because they arent bouncing back economically like they pretend they are.

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Judicator 5 points ago +5 / -0

A hot war would be military suicide. That's why they're putting everything into taking down Trump.

A few points (may need some fact checking, but last I looked these were true):

  • China basically produces no food, at least compared to their population (not that communist leaders have ever been particularly afraid of starving their people, but still)
  • Their industrialization and urbanization means most of their key locations are high-density areas. Simultaneously, they are high value targets - take the Three Gorges Dam, for example - cruise missile that and they're gonna have a really bad time.
  • Their troops have repeatedly displayed poor training at best; against India, against Vietnam, etc.
  • They lack metallurgy to produce the engines to make their aircraft competitive in speed, and "speed is life". Speed is also the future of air combat; why use stealth when you can be in and out before they can even take a dump?
  • They lack a competitive navy. Few carriers, and many are old Soviet refits. A navy is required for global power projection, period. They've tried to get around that by buying ports and building mass infrastructure across Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and South America, but they don't exactly have a land connection between the hemispheres.
  • Poor will to fight compared to us. We're patriotic and have a military of volunteers that train round the clock for years on end. They are majority conscripts, and the majority of them probably are content with their leadership at most. Morale is everything in warfare.
  • Their nuclear arsenal is massively smaller than ours. We also have the PATRIOT defense system, which, while I wouldn't WANT to put faith in, has shown in testing to be pretty reliable at intercepting and defeating ICBMs. Their only safe bet to nuke us would be through use of a Sub; we have massive fleets of carriers and destroyers to protect our shores.
  • India would be on our side, and is another nuclear and fairly well-armed power.
  • Vietnam would likely join us just out of historical rivalry with China.
  • Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan all boast an impressive military that would likely be capable of collectively taking China in a conventional war.

I could continue, but I think it's pretty apparent that they're beat in just about every way. That will not stay that way much longer if we continue down this course, especially if Biden were to be put in office.

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castratedbob 3 points ago +3 / -0

Agreed with all your points, only issue is with growing unrest due to economic and social problems China is turning into a cornered rat. The dozen or so oppressed minorites in China are becoming more violent (southern mongols, Tibetians etc.), Chinas neighbors are over their bullshit, and all the debt traps theyve laid are failing. They are already running out of food, foreign currency to buy coal and other energy, and theyve been hit by a hundred natural disasters this year alone. Im worried they will force a hot war with someone (Taiwan?) as a means to quell domestic unrest and prop up their economy through military industrial expansion. America will still shit all over them by themselves, let alone with the quads backing. Dont think we can rely on the EU or NATO anymore.

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Judicator 3 points ago +3 / -0

Agreed with the last part; the only country we can really rely on in NATO anymore IMO is Poland, and I suppose any countries in their sphere more than Germany's. Even then I don't know if I'd expect much help out of them though, because they have their own problems in the form of both Russia and the EU. Russia might get opportunistic if China starts going hot with us (while we're distracted), and I wouldn't be surprised if Western Europe just let them have anything they wanted.

I do agree. China is cornered. They've fallen for the same trap all dictators within recent times make - Corrupt the government to seize power, and use that now horribly corrupt and inefficient government to try and maintain power whilst hemorrhaging control. Perform mass spending and buildups to stimulate the economy, creating a bubble. Continue mass spending and buildup (by utilizing the military machine that that spending usually goes towards to seize other nations) until you either get defeated, or there is nothing left to conquer, at which point it's only a matter of time before the bubble pops and everything explodes. That was WWII Germany, the USSR, Saddam (pre-Gulf War), and many, many others.