Canuckistani from Alberta here. I have an American Girlfriend, and I spend a lot of my time in America as a result, and keep my thumb on the American Pulse. And I was a begrudging, into enthusiastic supporter of the Trump Presidency. I woulda traded Trudeau for Trump in a heart beat, the entire time, though.
MB is likely Dark Blue or Green. This is because of a 50/50 split in francophones, who would likely side with Ontario. Our Federal Tax office is also in Manitoba, so Ontario would not let it go. New borders, not clean.
Edmonton also likes to vote NDP thanks to Jack Layton's work shortly before his death, so there would be problems there too. It's thoroughly blue collar amongst older generation, but the younger generation are naive ideallists, and he purchased their support.
Saskatchewan will not move unless Alberta does. Alberta will not move unless Edmonton does.
BC is also more likely to be light blue. BC is Vancouver's bitch, and Vancouver is like Canada's California.
I think the only thing I see that I strongly disagree with on your analysis is that of BC. the GVA area would go with light blue like you say, but the rest of the province I suspect will split and join red. The people I have been talking with from BC from places like Kelowna and Kamloops are livid with their neighbors down the road in the GVA and would likely go with us if we should leave. This was before all the covid stuff and now it's not easy to tell but I suspect things have not changed. Call it my bias.
Manitoba is an interesting pickle. I honestly couldn't predict what direction they would take. They might fight a war, either cold or hot, over this issue because they're divided in so many directions.
I don't know. The problem with rural BC, and the reason it's dependant on Vancouver is due to how massive a port Vancouver is. A lot of what they get comes through that port.
They're sandwhiched between mountains and adversaries at that point, complicating the logistics of BC turning red; it just might not be feasible.
I understand your reasoning, but I think I stand by what I said with a light blue BC
Canuckistani from Alberta here. I have an American Girlfriend, and I spend a lot of my time in America as a result, and keep my thumb on the American Pulse. And I was a begrudging, into enthusiastic supporter of the Trump Presidency. I woulda traded Trudeau for Trump in a heart beat, the entire time, though.
MB is likely Dark Blue or Green. This is because of a 50/50 split in francophones, who would likely side with Ontario. Our Federal Tax office is also in Manitoba, so Ontario would not let it go. New borders, not clean.
Edmonton also likes to vote NDP thanks to Jack Layton's work shortly before his death, so there would be problems there too. It's thoroughly blue collar amongst older generation, but the younger generation are naive ideallists, and he purchased their support.
Saskatchewan will not move unless Alberta does. Alberta will not move unless Edmonton does.
BC is also more likely to be light blue. BC is Vancouver's bitch, and Vancouver is like Canada's California.
I'm from Saskatchewan here.
I think the only thing I see that I strongly disagree with on your analysis is that of BC. the GVA area would go with light blue like you say, but the rest of the province I suspect will split and join red. The people I have been talking with from BC from places like Kelowna and Kamloops are livid with their neighbors down the road in the GVA and would likely go with us if we should leave. This was before all the covid stuff and now it's not easy to tell but I suspect things have not changed. Call it my bias.
Manitoba is an interesting pickle. I honestly couldn't predict what direction they would take. They might fight a war, either cold or hot, over this issue because they're divided in so many directions.
But yeah, good analysis.
I don't know. The problem with rural BC, and the reason it's dependant on Vancouver is due to how massive a port Vancouver is. A lot of what they get comes through that port.
They're sandwhiched between mountains and adversaries at that point, complicating the logistics of BC turning red; it just might not be feasible.
I understand your reasoning, but I think I stand by what I said with a light blue BC
there's something hilarious about "BC is Vancouver's bitch."
Calgarian pede here!