Indeed. I have a problem with the math in the lawsuit as well.
Before I get into the details, so that I'm not eaten alive here, I'll just say that in sections 32-34 of the Lawsuit Summary Cicchetti makes undeniable points about
17-fold discrepancies rejection rates for absentee ballots in GA,
174,384 votes in MI not matched to registered voters, and
70% of Detroit precincts did not balance the votes tabulated.
As to the math leading him to item 30 in the Lawsuit Summary (page 28)...
In item 11 (page 22):
I estimate the variance by multiplying the mean times the probability of the candidate not getting a vote.
This is not how variance is calculated or what variance actually means.
Variance is a measure of variability. To know variability, you need raw data, and Cicchetti does not mention using raw data anywere.
Now, he is trying to say Biden got many more votes than Clinton in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
This is utterly meaningless, because Biden got many more votes than Clinton in EVERY state, expressed as either absolute number or a percent of the total.
And these states are not at the top either.
When ranked by difference in votes, GA, MI, PA, and WI are ##6, 7, 8, and 22, and when ranked by difference in % for a candidate, they rank ##29, 32, 42, and 38, respectively.
I would be truly grateful if anyone could explain what is going on there.
This is a product of really really bad math and a misuse of probabilities.
The chance was extremely low but definitely not that low.
Indeed. I have a problem with the math in the lawsuit as well.
Before I get into the details, so that I'm not eaten alive here, I'll just say that in sections 32-34 of the Lawsuit Summary Cicchetti makes undeniable points about
As to the math leading him to item 30 in the Lawsuit Summary (page 28)... In item 11 (page 22):
This is not how variance is calculated or what variance actually means.
Variance is a measure of variability. To know variability, you need raw data, and Cicchetti does not mention using raw data anywere.
Now, he is trying to say Biden got many more votes than Clinton in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
This is utterly meaningless, because Biden got many more votes than Clinton in EVERY state, expressed as either absolute number or a percent of the total.
And these states are not at the top either.
When ranked by difference in votes, GA, MI, PA, and WI are ##6, 7, 8, and 22, and when ranked by difference in % for a candidate, they rank ##29, 32, 42, and 38, respectively.
I would be truly grateful if anyone could explain what is going on there.