I firmly believe that the economy is going to crash under the incompetence of the Biden Administration and the catastrophic losses will be more than the MSM can suppress or spin.
However, at the end of the day the market will do what it does irrespective of what I believe and I can only trade what the market is showing me.
Right now the S&P 500 daily chart which I posted above is showing that the index has been gradually floating up in about a 150 point trading range. When it gets to the low of that channel I’ve been looking for long positions to day trade. Usually it makes that low in the morning and then floats up pretty quickly. Except today. There haven’t been good bounces off of the low end of the channel and if it can’t get back up to the highs by end of week or early next week, this makes me thing the channel is close to breaking.
This channel is going to break eventually. They always do. The important thing is that you have to watch it break first, you can’t get suckered into shorting the low and then getting reversed back up. I have had it happen to me multiple times. This thing might be faking a breakdown just to short squeeze up to 4000.
Watch for this thing to break, and on the day that it gets a deep close under the channel line be on watch for further downside.
When it breaks I think the first stop is 3580 which is about 7% off of all time highs. I think it gets a crappy bounce in that area at best and heads to 3390 which is about 11% off all time highs. However, the real question is if it can get down to 3230 which would be a 16% drop off the all time highs. That would totally rock the Biden Regime especially if this happens within the first several months of taking office.
That’s still a ways to 50% but I’ll discuss my thoughts on that if this breakdown I’m envisioning starts to unfold. For now, just watch that channel on the S&P 500 Daily.
this is the daily candlestick chart of the S&P 500. You can set it up for yourself on their web site and track the trend channel in the chart above.
Price is gradually floating up within a trading range. Eventually all trading ranges break one way or the other. I think that this will break to the downside soon, like within days to weeks. By break I mean it the candlestick closes below the trendline and then is followed by additional closes below that channel low.
Buyers make prices go up, if prices are not going up that means buyers are not stepping up. This kills the upward momentum we've had which is already at all time highs and induces smart money bulls to take profits and smart money bears to short sell the market. This process accelerates and causes sell offs.
Since we are at such elevated levels on the S&P 500 I expect for a flush to occur with an initial drop to 3580 within days of the channel break. The question is will that trigger further selling or will dip buyers step up. I think more selling will unfold.
The important thing though is to initially focus on that channel low to see what the market is thinking. If it holds, then the float up continues. If it breaks, look out below!
pumping is already hitting it's limit. Inflation is up huge. double digit gains in commodities over last 12 months. This is part of what is forcing the yield on the 10 year up off of dead lows because it has to be greater than inflation.
So, crash, then pump, pump leads to more inflation which leads to greater yield on the 10 year bond which crashes the market. The 10 year was already at 35 basis points last year and can't go any lower. It can only go up.
After 4 years of sound policies favorable to the markets, think of Biden as a new captain who is turning the ship in a different direction. This is a period of adjustment so a correction is inevitable.
Its all by design. And even if I had money to buy april puts and maybe some long term Jul Aug puts....what will it matter when hyperinflation makes our money worthless?
Increasing the money supply by 30% is not an attempt to crash the economy, that is an attempt to juice the economy. 4 trilliion in stimulus is not done because they think it will blow up the economy, it's done to kick the can down the road.
Saying "it's by design" makes you sound like they are intentially blowing up the economy. No ruler throughout history ever does that because that is an easy way to start civil war.
The same playbook going back 40 years is juice the money supply and inject fiscal stimulus. That's what's worked so they are going to keep running the play.
However the 10 year bond hit 35 basis points last year. IT can not go any lower. There is double digit year over year commodity inflation. The dollar is at 2018 lows and headed to 2008 lows. Dollar hegemony is at risk.
The play will fail and when the market crashes that will be the end of the Democrats and Rinos.
Why coming out of a year long lockdown when people are falling into poverty and hurting, would you on day 1 sign a bunch of EOs that clearly are going to crater the economy even further...unless it was your plan? Sometimes you have to step back and look at the big picture. They are literally telling us what they plan on doing...
You'll own nothing and be happy. Build back better. UBI. Social credit scores. Digital vax passports......
Then let me just agree with you on what we agree on - I think once we break this current trendline, we are going back to test the 3200 s&r line over the next months.
Look...I agree with you in the short to mid term...but look at the long term goal...
No ruler ever intentionally crashes the economy? So what were the global COVID lockdowns for an entire year for?
The Great Reset bullshit is real...its on it way....the plan is being accelerated. The "rules" of how things have worked since post WWII are about to not matter anymore....
No ruler ever intentionally crashes the economy. Go through history and find anyone that ever tries to crash their economy and there are none.
The blue states locked down their economy because they believed their own hype and the media hype that the wu flu is the worst disease in a thousand years.
They wrongly believe that the benefits of shutting down outweigh the costs of being open. They fully committed to that policy and will not back down even when proven completely wrong because they are ideologues.
In the same sense the Federal Reserve keeps blowing bubbles that keep blowing up. They think that they are doing the right thing and will do mental gymnastics to justify it and will never admit they are wrong.
Their policies made the Great Depression worse and have destroyed purchasing power over the last hundred years.
Congress believes that minimum wage laws will help the common man even though it causes more unemployment. They are not trying to cause unemployment but they are committed to an ideology that runs opposite to reality.
These are just some tangible examples of how the institutional elites think. They are not trying to destroy the economy. They think they are able to engineer a better economy but they are wrong and will not admit it.
Fortunately the market has limits and the 10 year yield hit 35 basis points last year. Interest rates can only go up. The Fed can try buy bonds to make rates go down but that will only undermine bond market confidence, the spreads between the 10 year yield and corporate yields will widen to by double digits, and all food and energy costs will increase by double digit percents this year.
Food riots will be occurring throughout the 3rd world probably by this summer and global political instability will give a negative feedback loop of disrupting supply lines, thereby increasing the costs of goods further.
I already gave away all my burnable cash being a gay bear because the entire country was shutting down left and right and the market climbed faster than ever. literal fucking clown world.
honestly I'm going to wait for the inevitable crash and then just buy stock like a good little normie.
Doesnt matter. Its an installed regime. Biden is a throwaway...the real goal is far deeper than these surface level concerns. Look behind the curtain. Its all planned. Thats what should worry you...Biden is just the throwaway fall-guy
A crashed market and a crashed economy will topple the Democrat regime. In fact a failing economy is what topples all rulers going back to the bronze age.
Study more history and less illuminati literature.
Just wait it out and you'll see...I know it's hard to accept.
The entire globe is ruled by a handful of powerful, sick fucks....
Destroying America is next on their shit list....hey...look what happened in Venezuela..thats exactly what was done here....and we will have the same outcome.
I read a lot of history. The power of the ruling elites was always tied to some level of economic prosperity. Quick example, the Pharaohs of Egypt were mindlessly worshipped by the masses as they stood for order and prosperity. The sun came up, the seasons came, and the Nile predictably flooded every year to make the crops grow. Whenever there were droughts, famines, or poor crops, there was dissent.
Same thing with the Hittites. When there was crop failure and pestilence, the blame was on the king. Same thing with ancient China, the mandate of heaven was granted to the emperor so long as prosperity endured. Otherwise there were rebellions etc.
Any administration that has a terrible economy will lose the support of the people, and with enough time will face rebellion.
I firmly believe that the economy is going to crash under the incompetence of the Biden Administration and the catastrophic losses will be more than the MSM can suppress or spin.
I believe that the S&P will crash 50% in his first year in office as outlined in an earlier post. https://patriots.win/p/11S0uRpLmh/prediction-sp-crashes-50-in-2021/
However, at the end of the day the market will do what it does irrespective of what I believe and I can only trade what the market is showing me.
Right now the S&P 500 daily chart which I posted above is showing that the index has been gradually floating up in about a 150 point trading range. When it gets to the low of that channel I’ve been looking for long positions to day trade. Usually it makes that low in the morning and then floats up pretty quickly. Except today. There haven’t been good bounces off of the low end of the channel and if it can’t get back up to the highs by end of week or early next week, this makes me thing the channel is close to breaking.
This channel is going to break eventually. They always do. The important thing is that you have to watch it break first, you can’t get suckered into shorting the low and then getting reversed back up. I have had it happen to me multiple times. This thing might be faking a breakdown just to short squeeze up to 4000.
Watch for this thing to break, and on the day that it gets a deep close under the channel line be on watch for further downside.
When it breaks I think the first stop is 3580 which is about 7% off of all time highs. I think it gets a crappy bounce in that area at best and heads to 3390 which is about 11% off all time highs. However, the real question is if it can get down to 3230 which would be a 16% drop off the all time highs. That would totally rock the Biden Regime especially if this happens within the first several months of taking office.
That’s still a ways to 50% but I’ll discuss my thoughts on that if this breakdown I’m envisioning starts to unfold. For now, just watch that channel on the S&P 500 Daily.
Please educate. What are the terms you are graph8ng and their importance?
https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-advanced-chart
this is the daily candlestick chart of the S&P 500. You can set it up for yourself on their web site and track the trend channel in the chart above.
Price is gradually floating up within a trading range. Eventually all trading ranges break one way or the other. I think that this will break to the downside soon, like within days to weeks. By break I mean it the candlestick closes below the trendline and then is followed by additional closes below that channel low.
Buyers make prices go up, if prices are not going up that means buyers are not stepping up. This kills the upward momentum we've had which is already at all time highs and induces smart money bulls to take profits and smart money bears to short sell the market. This process accelerates and causes sell offs.
Since we are at such elevated levels on the S&P 500 I expect for a flush to occur with an initial drop to 3580 within days of the channel break. The question is will that trigger further selling or will dip buyers step up. I think more selling will unfold.
The important thing though is to initially focus on that channel low to see what the market is thinking. If it holds, then the float up continues. If it breaks, look out below!
Yellen will pump money into it long enough to keep it afloat.
pumping is already hitting it's limit. Inflation is up huge. double digit gains in commodities over last 12 months. This is part of what is forcing the yield on the 10 year up off of dead lows because it has to be greater than inflation.
So, crash, then pump, pump leads to more inflation which leads to greater yield on the 10 year bond which crashes the market. The 10 year was already at 35 basis points last year and can't go any lower. It can only go up.
i hope the markets dont collapse
i am not like bill maher who wanted the economy to collapse no matter who is "president" the world needs a good economy
hope is not a strategy and this market is juiced to the gills. it's going to fall question is when and how badly.
After 4 years of sound policies favorable to the markets, think of Biden as a new captain who is turning the ship in a different direction. This is a period of adjustment so a correction is inevitable.
We are def going to go back to test the 3200 s&r level over the next months...
If I had any money, I'd be buying apr puts like crazy...
But, I'm flat broke
this will be known as the Biden Bear Market and the more stupid shit that comes out of his mouth the market will drop further
Its all by design. And even if I had money to buy april puts and maybe some long term Jul Aug puts....what will it matter when hyperinflation makes our money worthless?
Its all fucked....hell here we come. Prepare.
Increasing the money supply by 30% is not an attempt to crash the economy, that is an attempt to juice the economy. 4 trilliion in stimulus is not done because they think it will blow up the economy, it's done to kick the can down the road.
Saying "it's by design" makes you sound like they are intentially blowing up the economy. No ruler throughout history ever does that because that is an easy way to start civil war.
The same playbook going back 40 years is juice the money supply and inject fiscal stimulus. That's what's worked so they are going to keep running the play.
However the 10 year bond hit 35 basis points last year. IT can not go any lower. There is double digit year over year commodity inflation. The dollar is at 2018 lows and headed to 2008 lows. Dollar hegemony is at risk.
The play will fail and when the market crashes that will be the end of the Democrats and Rinos.
Why coming out of a year long lockdown when people are falling into poverty and hurting, would you on day 1 sign a bunch of EOs that clearly are going to crater the economy even further...unless it was your plan? Sometimes you have to step back and look at the big picture. They are literally telling us what they plan on doing...
You'll own nothing and be happy. Build back better. UBI. Social credit scores. Digital vax passports......
Your stuff is way off topic from my predictions of the S&P 500 collapse or generalized market collapse.
Then let me just agree with you on what we agree on - I think once we break this current trendline, we are going back to test the 3200 s&r line over the next months.
More I cannot say - but that much seems certain.
Look...I agree with you in the short to mid term...but look at the long term goal...
No ruler ever intentionally crashes the economy? So what were the global COVID lockdowns for an entire year for?
The Great Reset bullshit is real...its on it way....the plan is being accelerated. The "rules" of how things have worked since post WWII are about to not matter anymore....
No ruler ever intentionally crashes the economy. Go through history and find anyone that ever tries to crash their economy and there are none.
The blue states locked down their economy because they believed their own hype and the media hype that the wu flu is the worst disease in a thousand years.
They wrongly believe that the benefits of shutting down outweigh the costs of being open. They fully committed to that policy and will not back down even when proven completely wrong because they are ideologues.
In the same sense the Federal Reserve keeps blowing bubbles that keep blowing up. They think that they are doing the right thing and will do mental gymnastics to justify it and will never admit they are wrong.
Their policies made the Great Depression worse and have destroyed purchasing power over the last hundred years.
Congress believes that minimum wage laws will help the common man even though it causes more unemployment. They are not trying to cause unemployment but they are committed to an ideology that runs opposite to reality.
These are just some tangible examples of how the institutional elites think. They are not trying to destroy the economy. They think they are able to engineer a better economy but they are wrong and will not admit it.
Fortunately the market has limits and the 10 year yield hit 35 basis points last year. Interest rates can only go up. The Fed can try buy bonds to make rates go down but that will only undermine bond market confidence, the spreads between the 10 year yield and corporate yields will widen to by double digits, and all food and energy costs will increase by double digit percents this year.
Food riots will be occurring throughout the 3rd world probably by this summer and global political instability will give a negative feedback loop of disrupting supply lines, thereby increasing the costs of goods further.
your magic crayons are fake prophets funny man.
make your market call and we'll come back and see who is right in a week
I already gave away all my burnable cash being a gay bear because the entire country was shutting down left and right and the market climbed faster than ever. literal fucking clown world.
honestly I'm going to wait for the inevitable crash and then just buy stock like a good little normie.
when this thing crashes take solace in the fact that the Biden Regime will look stupid as shit to normies.
Doesnt matter. Its an installed regime. Biden is a throwaway...the real goal is far deeper than these surface level concerns. Look behind the curtain. Its all planned. Thats what should worry you...Biden is just the throwaway fall-guy
A crashed market and a crashed economy will topple the Democrat regime. In fact a failing economy is what topples all rulers going back to the bronze age.
Study more history and less illuminati literature.
Just wait it out and you'll see...I know it's hard to accept.
The entire globe is ruled by a handful of powerful, sick fucks....
Destroying America is next on their shit list....hey...look what happened in Venezuela..thats exactly what was done here....and we will have the same outcome.
I read a lot of history. The power of the ruling elites was always tied to some level of economic prosperity. Quick example, the Pharaohs of Egypt were mindlessly worshipped by the masses as they stood for order and prosperity. The sun came up, the seasons came, and the Nile predictably flooded every year to make the crops grow. Whenever there were droughts, famines, or poor crops, there was dissent.
Same thing with the Hittites. When there was crop failure and pestilence, the blame was on the king. Same thing with ancient China, the mandate of heaven was granted to the emperor so long as prosperity endured. Otherwise there were rebellions etc.
Any administration that has a terrible economy will lose the support of the people, and with enough time will face rebellion.