There are a lot of comments and questions on civil war going on and I'd like to add my two cents.

I'll preface this with: I have not seen any classified data on this. I was a Signal Man operating a basic VOIP system for field use at one point. I've worked other jobs, but I've never seen anything relating to civil war.

1. Civil war won't be fought by the guard or reserve.

This should be fairly obvious, but the NG and the Federal Reserves are Civilians 95% of the year. Sure they go to training, but they play fast and loose with the rules, especially the HQ units in terms of Hair (you've seen it) and Discipline. I was NEVER a model soldier in terms of Discipline. I was an E-4 that acted like a warrant (yes there is a difference.) They cannot trust the Nasty Girls and the Federal Rejects to shoot civilians, not like the way they'd have to do it. Especially not in the red states. Sure a few line units will move under the command of the AD folks, but still. Those 95% civilians have talked about this, recently. I had a SFC tell me he'd pop an officer that gave that order. I had every one in the unit look at me with abject horror at the thought of walking up to so house to conduct a search and seizure. In rural areas, you could make the drives leading up to houses unpassable, meaning you'd have to walk it. Many rural folks shoot at least as good as US Army and Marine sharpshooters. I don't know about you, but brain suffocation because my neck is eviscerated from a .308 round sounds horrible.

2. Even the AD folks would fracture. There are a lot of douchebags in military leadership, but there are enough that take things like their oaths and the constitution seriously to fracture things and lead it infighting for a while. That will lead to troops going awol or lots of dead people. It will also mean that local warlords will challenge the bases for control of those weapons.

3. The military has this gamed out. They know EXACTLY how bloody this would be. They likely want nothing to do with it and would rather replace the administration before it got that far. Not the GO's, they are too far gone, but the Regimental, Battalion and Company commanders would take over.

4. This is the big one.

This is what China and Russia want.

They want us shooting at each other so they can take over Canada and Mexico, and then waltz in to take us while we are divided.

We've already heard China has troops in Canada, they may have troops in Mexico too.

Russia wants an over extended China so they can take them out as well. Do be mistaken, China and Russia HATE each other. But all dictators hate competition.

This would be costly for China, but they don't care, they'll use NK and other troops to augement their own. They can literally drown us in dead bodies until disease takes us. These people are EVIL and they don't care how much human life is lost in their quest for power and dominiation.

Summary: The Military, the people in the know, don't want civil war and won't let it happen.