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TrumpWinz [S] 3 points ago +3 / -0

The media is cheerleading the “all time highs” hit this week and attributing it to “market confidence in an economic recovery.” What will be their opinion if the market goes into a double digit crash?

I think we all know the answer but it will no doubt be entertaining to watch the media, the Dems, the Circle Back Girl, and all of their colleagues try to explain how Biden took over a surging stock market with all time highs and then it tanks shortly thereafter.

What I wanted to share was that the S&P 500 is behaving almost exactly like it did exactly 12 months ago right before the big crash.

The chart above is the S&P for 2020 vs 2021 which shows how there was a strong uptrend from the prior quarter coming into January.

The S&P made a new high then proceeded to sell off in the last week of January. Then, it rallied off of the 50 day moving average in the first week of February, making a new high on the 5th. From there it traded up with only marginally higher highs but the slowdown in upward momentum was visible as the index just traded sideways.

Then, in the last week of February the sell off started and this time it crashed through the 50 day moving average and kept selling into March.

The 2021 chart shows many similarities thus far. There was a strong uptrend, a new high in January, a selloff in the last week of January, and there was a strong bounce the first week of February with another new high today.

Will the markets trade mostly sideways over the next couple of weeks and set up for a February drop?

We will have to see but I like those odds.

In my prior post I showed that the FANG stocks are almost all trading off of their all time highs and not participating in this rally. By the way, that’s what happened last year before the crash as well.

Biden Economic Collapse Watch - Signs of a topping market -NASDAQ hits all time highs without FANG stocks https://patriots.win/p/12hR2tWWsi/biden-economic-collapse-watch--s/

All of the charts are from investing.com if you want to see it for yourself.

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Gmama2 4 points ago +4 / -0

The Chinese will pump up the market.

It will be a while before it tanks. Everything is rigged. Everything.

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koalakingdom 1 point ago +1 / -0

Yupp! 100% accurate.

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Blndhairylegs 2 points ago +2 / -0

i keep loading up SRTY but running out of steam. This market just goes up apparently, with no real rationale. If I move my 401 back into a long position I could guarantee a crash. I have done it before with great success :)

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TrumpWinz [S] 3 points ago +3 / -0

Shorting the equity index requires very strict methodology for entry. Otherwise you get the shit squeezed out of you.

I would advise you to watch for it to start crashing first. See if it can get back down to the 50 day moving average and close below it towards the end of the month. I don't think it will hold this time around.

If we have a big sell off it will occur over many days, weeks, possibly months. So no need to try and guess the top.

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FlyinHeadlock 1 point ago +1 / -0

Isn't the S&P like 40% Amazon or some something stupid. Thought I read that somewhere.

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TrumpWinz [S] 1 point ago +1 / -0

4.4%

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MAGAstroni 1 point ago +1 / -0

Crash it and then blame it on Trump, they need some new tricks

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TrumpWinz [S] 2 points ago +2 / -0

they can try, but taking over the market at all time highs then having it tank will be a tough sell. Then the gas prices will be up this summer. Crude is already up 60% since November because the market knew Biden would be anti oil.

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SgtThoughtCrime2020 1 point ago +1 / -0

Interesting insight. I don't recall the purpose of the dip from last year prior to the crash, but those dips in your second chart are a result of the GME drama. I would weigh that into your analysis and not take these as like for like at face value.

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TrumpWinz [S] 2 points ago +2 / -0

GME is a 4 billion dollar market cap stock and has no bearing on the market.

FANG stocks for example are more important and have a bigger weighting of the index. They are almost all trading off of their highs and did not participate in this week's all time high. So, there is a divergence in pricing. There's a link to that in my original post.

All crashes start with a couple of hard sell off attempts and then failed attempts to either make materially newer highs and/or get back to the old high.