Scenario 1: Texas holds a statewide referendum, and votes to secede by a majority. The legislature ratifies it, sends a letter, signed by the governor, to Congress noting that the people wish to secede. Congress decides to reject the proposal. So Texas announces that due to whatever reason it can come up with, they are seceding anyway. They reach out again to congress, asking for an amicable departure, and willing to apportion assets accordingly. After Congress rebuffs them, Texas begins escorting federal agents to the border of Texas, and builds a wall around the border, carefully checking papers of people that come and go for citizenship in Texas. Federal agents who try to enforce federal laws in Texas are detained by police, and peacefully escorted to the border, and Texas petitions the United States to stop interfering with their business. Texas takes no other aggressive action, not even seizing any assets of the federal government. After 10 years or so of self-rule, eventually the federal government relents and works out how to allocate the assets and such from Texas.
Scenario 2: Same as above, except the agents that Texas arrest become violent, and shoot at the Texas state troopers or local police. Several Texas officers are injured or killed. Texas demands that the federal government stand down, that they are not recognized inside their borders anymore. The federal government sends in federal troops to do what exactly? Occupy the capitol? Protect the agents? Shoot "rebel leaders"? The world looks on in horror as atrocities are committed in the name of the United States against the people of Texas. Or maybe they do nothing and just stand there? When someone is arrested by a federal agent, the person insists that they are not part of the United States and do not recognize the federal courts. Now they are political prisoners, same as Gandhi. Eventually, the people of Texas say "Enough!" and deploy their military in aggressive activities against the US, with the sole intention of being left alone. Calling on foreign powers for assistance, we engage in Civil War, except the federal troops are not in friendly territory. Imagine Afghanistan except the Afghanis are modern warriors with modern military tactics and an understanding of things like cyber warfare and propaganda. How will this end?
Scenario 3: Same as above, except instead of giving the federal government time to form a response, Texas goes immediately in, guns blazing. They pile the corpses of the federal troops and agents sky high, bragging about how many they have killed, and showing off all the money they looted from the federal agencies. POTUS declares an insurrection in Texas and waves the bloody shirt of the atrocities committed by Texas against the United States. How will this end?
Which scenario is most likely? Which scenario ends with Texas seceding or Texas staying?
Scenario 1: There is zero chance you "escort" the "agents" peacefully. So
Scenario 2: More likely than what you suggest, the agents refuse to cooperate, and Texas is forced to either fire on them or deal with them being there. Either way, many other governments around the world have problems with secessionist sentiments, and as such it's highly unlikely they'd side with secessionists over, you know, the world hegemon, the most powerful military in history. Order is restored swiftly, before Texans have a chance to organize anything, with the definite increased military presence in the state following a petition to secede and Texas faces Reconstruction 2: Illegal Immigrant Boogaloo.
Scenario 3: lol, Texas doesn't stand a chance
The most likely scenario, of course, is Scenario 4: Texas bitches and moans about having a blue president and talks about secession, like they always do, and never follow through with it, like they always do, until enough illegals are able to vote to make it a nice, loyal blue state.
A bunch of neanderthals with primitive rifles is still giving the US problems in Afghanistan.
How many federal troops would it take to occupy Texas enough that US people would feel comfortable walking down the street without getting shot? Or rather, just Dallas. How many troops to occupy Dallas so an FBI agent can conduct an investigation?
How much of our military are we actually committing? We could wipe them off the map entirely if we decided to give no fucks about it. The US isn't even mobilized for war, the war has basically zero impact at home.
Let me spell it out for you.
Scenario 1: Texas holds a statewide referendum, and votes to secede by a majority. The legislature ratifies it, sends a letter, signed by the governor, to Congress noting that the people wish to secede. Congress decides to reject the proposal. So Texas announces that due to whatever reason it can come up with, they are seceding anyway. They reach out again to congress, asking for an amicable departure, and willing to apportion assets accordingly. After Congress rebuffs them, Texas begins escorting federal agents to the border of Texas, and builds a wall around the border, carefully checking papers of people that come and go for citizenship in Texas. Federal agents who try to enforce federal laws in Texas are detained by police, and peacefully escorted to the border, and Texas petitions the United States to stop interfering with their business. Texas takes no other aggressive action, not even seizing any assets of the federal government. After 10 years or so of self-rule, eventually the federal government relents and works out how to allocate the assets and such from Texas.
Scenario 2: Same as above, except the agents that Texas arrest become violent, and shoot at the Texas state troopers or local police. Several Texas officers are injured or killed. Texas demands that the federal government stand down, that they are not recognized inside their borders anymore. The federal government sends in federal troops to do what exactly? Occupy the capitol? Protect the agents? Shoot "rebel leaders"? The world looks on in horror as atrocities are committed in the name of the United States against the people of Texas. Or maybe they do nothing and just stand there? When someone is arrested by a federal agent, the person insists that they are not part of the United States and do not recognize the federal courts. Now they are political prisoners, same as Gandhi. Eventually, the people of Texas say "Enough!" and deploy their military in aggressive activities against the US, with the sole intention of being left alone. Calling on foreign powers for assistance, we engage in Civil War, except the federal troops are not in friendly territory. Imagine Afghanistan except the Afghanis are modern warriors with modern military tactics and an understanding of things like cyber warfare and propaganda. How will this end?
Scenario 3: Same as above, except instead of giving the federal government time to form a response, Texas goes immediately in, guns blazing. They pile the corpses of the federal troops and agents sky high, bragging about how many they have killed, and showing off all the money they looted from the federal agencies. POTUS declares an insurrection in Texas and waves the bloody shirt of the atrocities committed by Texas against the United States. How will this end?
Which scenario is most likely? Which scenario ends with Texas seceding or Texas staying?
Scenario 1: There is zero chance you "escort" the "agents" peacefully. So
Scenario 2: More likely than what you suggest, the agents refuse to cooperate, and Texas is forced to either fire on them or deal with them being there. Either way, many other governments around the world have problems with secessionist sentiments, and as such it's highly unlikely they'd side with secessionists over, you know, the world hegemon, the most powerful military in history. Order is restored swiftly, before Texans have a chance to organize anything, with the definite increased military presence in the state following a petition to secede and Texas faces Reconstruction 2: Illegal Immigrant Boogaloo.
Scenario 3: lol, Texas doesn't stand a chance
The most likely scenario, of course, is Scenario 4: Texas bitches and moans about having a blue president and talks about secession, like they always do, and never follow through with it, like they always do, until enough illegals are able to vote to make it a nice, loyal blue state.
Texas doesn't stand a chance?
A bunch of neanderthals with primitive rifles is still giving the US problems in Afghanistan.
How many federal troops would it take to occupy Texas enough that US people would feel comfortable walking down the street without getting shot? Or rather, just Dallas. How many troops to occupy Dallas so an FBI agent can conduct an investigation?
How much of our military are we actually committing? We could wipe them off the map entirely if we decided to give no fucks about it. The US isn't even mobilized for war, the war has basically zero impact at home.
That's why the military cannot do as much as you think it can.
They are limited by public sentiment.
We can't win Afghanistan because we're not willing to do what needs to be done. Afghanis know this.