If you want to be a good intuitive Bayesian—if you want to naturally make good predictions, without having to think about what kind of prediction rule is appropriate—you need to protect your priors. Counterintuitively, that might mean turning off the news.
To be fair the 0 degree temps made it a totally different situation and a very dangerous one.
I’m a califag. My power seriously goes out every other week. The California grid is such shit