I would bet my house that he will in 2024. And i've heard the bookies in Vegas have started to pour big money on him running again.
I heard that if he were to formally announce running now and make it official that he would be bound by all the laws that go with it, so im thinking he will lay low the next two years, help out the Rinos in 2022, then in 2022 start to ramp up his campaign for 2024.
Trump's pretty obviously not all-in on 2024. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.