When Linux came out, I thought Microsoft was going to be gone in a matter of years. While Linux has indeed taken over the back end server market, and more or less made Microsoft irrelevant in the server space, I was still amazed at how long they have been able to linger around in the desktop market and with licensing schemes.
I think Facebook and Google will eventually go the same way, I don't see them gone in years, but do see them on the way out. Decentralized information technology is taking over the market place. They can do it cheaper, and better. Also, while the big IT corps have massive economies of scale, the truth is that those can only go so far. Home internet and cpu power is competitive on a single connection per connection basis.
It's kind of like desktop publishing vs the NY Times printing press. Sure the NY Times can do it cheaper per unit, but they have no flexibility to compete locally.
When Linux came out, I thought Microsoft was going to be gone in a matter of years. While Linux has indeed taken over the back end server market, and more or less made Microsoft irrelevant in the server space, I was still amazed at how long they have been able to linger around in the desktop market and with licensing schemes.
I think Facebook and Google will eventually go the same way, I don't see them gone in years, but do see them on the way out. Decentralized information technology is taking over the market place. They can do it cheaper, and better. Also, while the big IT corps have massive economies of scale, the truth is that those can only go so far. Home internet and cpu power is competitive on a single connection per connection basis.
It's kind of like desktop publishing vs the NY Times printing press. Sure the NY Times can do it cheaper per unit, but they have no flexibility to compete locally.