Even an incompetent administration could absolutely humiliate and obliterate China should they attack Taiwan. It would literally take no effort. The whole world would be against them, except maybe Russia, and they wouldn't do shit because full scale nuclear warfare is not something they'd risk for the sake of Chinese imperialism (especially when the Russian Far East is in China's sights, too). So China would see an immediate blockade which they have no hope of overcoming. There goes ALL of the energy resource imports, not to mention most of their other resources. Their economy would collapse overnight. All the capital that could flee would and that which couldn't would get liquid and get stuffed under so many mattresses. Most of China's economy is built on wild speculation (especially their housing bubble market), and that would burst instantly. They would find themselves instantly a pariah which no one would be ALLOWED to do business with. And this doesn't even touch the military implications.
Imagine trying to do a Normandy style invasion. Only the enemy knows well in advance where you're going to land, they have artillery trained on the beaches and the ocean beyond them, they have anti-tank missiles scattered everywhere, they have anti-ship missile batteries everywhere, they have AAA/MANPADS/SAM batteries everywhere, they have coastal defenses meant to block vehicle movement, they have urban centers right up along the coast, and they have cruise missiles capable of reaching your mainland ports. Oh and infantry and tanks are FAR more mobile and lethal today, and the most you can land with are a few thousand marines and amphibious tanks which a 20mm heavy machine gun (or even a .50 cal) could make short work of, supposing it makes it to the beach. And the air battle? That would be an even bigger joke. American naval aviation would obliterate all-comers with ease. China's dinky "carriers" would be sunk at the outset, not that they have any planes worth a shit. Chinese subs would similarly be hunted down in short order, unable to enjoy any air cover. That leaves China's coastal navy and missile forces, which can shoot missiles all they want, but missiles don't hold ground or control sea or air space. They would quickly run out of offensive assets, and then they would implode as the generals realize they've got no chance and they cut and run to their private hideaways in rural China with their praetorian guards.
Even an incompetent administration could absolutely humiliate and obliterate China should they attack Taiwan. It would literally take no effort. The whole world would be against them, except maybe Russia, and they wouldn't do shit because full scale nuclear warfare is not something they'd risk for the sake of Chinese imperialism (especially when the Russian Far East is in China's sights, too). So China would see an immediate blockade which they have no hope of overcoming. There goes ALL of the energy resource imports, not to mention most of their other resources. Their economy would collapse overnight. All the capital that could flee would and that which couldn't would get liquid and get stuffed under so many mattresses. Most of China's economy is built on wild speculation (especially their housing bubble market), and that would burst instantly. They would find themselves instantly a pariah which no one would be ALLOWED to do business with. And this doesn't even touch the military implications.
Imagine trying to do a Normandy style invasion. Only the enemy knows well in advance where you're going to land, they have artillery trained on the beaches and the ocean beyond them, they have anti-tank missiles scattered everywhere, they have anti-ship missile batteries everywhere, they have AAA/MANPADS/SAM batteries everywhere, they have coastal defenses meant to block vehicle movement, they have urban centers right up along the coast, and they have cruise missiles capable of reaching your mainland ports. Oh and infantry and tanks are FAR more mobile and lethal today, and the most you can land with are a few thousand marines and amphibious tanks which a 20mm heavy machine gun (or even a .50 cal) could make short work of, supposing it makes it to the beach. And the air battle? That would be an even bigger joke. American naval aviation would obliterate all-comers with ease. China's dinky "carriers" would be sunk at the outset, not that they have any planes worth a shit. Chinese subs would similarly be hunted down in short order, unable to enjoy any air cover. That leaves China's coastal navy and missile forces, which can shoot missiles all they want, but missiles don't hold ground or control sea or air space. They would quickly run out of offensive assets, and then they would implode as the generals realize they've got no chance and they cut and run to their private hideaways in rural China with their praetorian guards.